Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:36:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9d8b…48c8 world 260 markets active 0h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$39 (-1%) realized −$104 · open +$65
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate24%57W / 184L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$722now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$38
14 days−$29
30 days−$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$513
other 25% −$277
politics 13% −$212
crypto 5% +$72
tech 4% −$101
sports 1% −$59
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-34.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -77.0% -79.2% 0% 0% -50.4%
≤30d 50 -57.8% -61.8% 16% 10% -16.1%
≤90d 241 -27.8% -34.6% 24% 17% -13.7%
all 241 -27.8% -34.6% 24% 17% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.6% 17% -13.7%
10% -40.9% 11% -22.0%
15% -46.6% 8% -29.5%
20% -51.8% 6% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$7 · ×2.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$722
Realized−$104
Unrealized+$65
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses57 / 184
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions19
Markets (closed)241 / 260
History coverage77d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 241 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 44¢ 56¢ $173 $224 +$51 (+29%)
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $121 $133 +$12 (+10%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 28¢ $103 $114 +$11 (+11%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 24¢ $67 $73 +$7 (+10%)
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $52 $40 −$12 (-22%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $34 $29 −$5 (-13%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 20¢ $15 $25 +$11 (+72%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $25 +$10 (+64%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $21 +$6 (+37%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $12 $11 −$1 (-8%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $13 $6 −$7 (-54%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-27%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $12 $3 −$9 (-75%)
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $1 −$1 (-35%)
Will Croatia be the furthest advancing UEFA nation at the World Cup? Yes $3 $1 −$2 (-71%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $1 −$1 (-62%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $1 −$2 (-75%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 57 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $35 −$12 -34%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $12 −$9 -76%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $18 −$3 -19%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $10 −$4 -40%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $3 $0 -6%
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $2 $0 +18%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $12 −$4 -29%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $2 −$1 -61%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 19 $34 $0 +1%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $12 −$6 -49%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country? Jun 19 $9 $0 -2%
Will Türkiye be the furthest advancing UEFA nation at the World Cup? Jun 19 $3 −$2 -75%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $8 +$22 +274%
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 17 $6 +$2 +30%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$25 -82%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 12 $20 −$1 -6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $55 +$38 +69%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $387 +$129 +33%
Will Ecuador finish last in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 10 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 05 $3 −$3 -97%
World Cup: Winless Team? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 05 $10 −$2 -23%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $12 −$8 -62%
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? Jun 02 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 02 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? Jun 02 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? Jun 02 $68 −$46 -68%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Trump designate Brazil's PCC or CV as a terrorists by December 31 May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $23 5m
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 1h
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 1h
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $61 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 41h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 41h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $9 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $9 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 7d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 7d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 7d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 7d
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 7d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 7d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 7d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 7d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 7d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 7d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 7d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 7d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 8d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 8d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 8d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 8d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $9 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $722.46 · official $722.96 (match) · 741 history records