Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:27:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9d8c…a80d politics 139 markets active 2h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,689 (-1%) realized −$1,690 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate17%23W / 115L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$918per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$784now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$6
14 days−$23
30 days−$1,255
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$61
other 37% −$78
sports 15% −$1,560
culture 2% −$3
economics 2% −$3
crypto 2% −$4
world 1% +$1
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 27 -3.8% -13.0% 7% 0% -12.5%
≤90d 81 -16.8% -24.7% 9% 5% -11.7%
all 138 -5.5% -14.5% 17% 9% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 9% -10.7%
10% -22.7% 7% -19.3%
15% -30.1% 7% -27.1%
20% -37.0% 5% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,357) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$19 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$784
Realized−$1,690
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses23 / 115
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)138 / 139
History coverage142d
Avg bet$918
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $783 $784 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $202 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $206 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $1,511 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $218 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $2,069 −$3 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $5,242 −$6 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $1,233 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2,314 −$3 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,982 −$3 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $1,649 −$2 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,028 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,289 −$2 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $1,253 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $3,091 −$3 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,048 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $287 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 02 $495 $0 +0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $1,914 −$2 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $545 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $2,772 −$3 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $1,247 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $1,869 −$3 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $718 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $727 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,810 −$2 -0%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 22 $1,208 −$1,208 -100%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $1,379 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $1,377 −$2 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 08 $1,357 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $1,376 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $1,257 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 05 $1,343 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 02 $1,262 −$2 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $1,262 −$2 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? May 02 $617 +$1 +0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $648 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $2,672 −$3 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $2,160 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $1,874 −$2 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $1,647 −$2 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $1,026 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $1,080 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $1,071 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $1,293 −$1 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $1,144 −$1 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $1,995 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $1,243 −$1 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $1,881 −$2 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $1,041 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $201 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $202 3h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $206 6h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $206 7h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $367 2d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $368 2d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $218 2d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $218 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $783 3d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $811 5d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $812 6d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,104 7d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,105 7d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,232 7d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,233 8d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,133 8d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,135 8d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,018 9d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,019 9d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,186 9d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,188 9d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,030 13d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,031 13d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,026 13d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,028 13d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,287 14d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,289 14d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,251 17d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,253 17d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,154 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $784.01 · official $784.01 (match) · 543 history records