Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:32:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

9D 0x9d8f…11a6 world 4 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d

RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$20 (+2%) realized +$20 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip

Net edge-8%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate50%2W / 2L

Drawdown19%max

Avg bet$312per market

Trades / day0.8pace

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-8.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+0.1%	-9.4%	50%	0%	-9.4%
≤30d	4	+1.6%	-8.1%	50%	0%	-8.1%
≤90d	4	+1.6%	-8.1%	50%	0%	-8.1%
all	4	+1.6%	-8.1%	50%	0%	-8.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.8 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-8.1%	0%	-8.1%
10%	-16.9%	0%	-16.9%
15%	-24.9%	0%	-24.9%
20%	-32.3%	0%	-32.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 97% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +2% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$12 vs −$4 · ×3.17 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×6.33 per $1 lost it wins $6.33

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$20

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses2 / 2

Open positions0

Markets (closed)4 / 4

History coverage10d

Avg bet$312

Trades / day0.8

Drawdown19%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 4 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?	Jun 24	$312	+$1	+0%
US x Cuba economic deal by July 31, 2026?	Jun 24	$312	$0	+0%
Aleksandar Pavlovic: 1+ goals	Jun 14	$311	+$23	+7%
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?	Jun 14	$314	−$4	-1%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?	SELL No	95¢	$279	2m
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?	SELL No	96¢	$34	2m
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?	BUY No	95¢	$312	1h
US x Cuba economic deal by July 31, 2026?	SELL No	91¢	$312	1h
US x Cuba economic deal by July 31, 2026?	BUY No	91¢	$312	1h
Aleksandar Pavlovic: 1+ goals	BUY No	93¢	$311	10d
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?	SELL No	92¢	$310	10d
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?	BUY No	93¢	$314	10d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 9 history records