Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:11:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
9D 0x9d91…40d5 sports 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$37 (-1%) realized −$37 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%34W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$95
7 days−$26
14 days+$288
30 days+$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$145
sports 41% −$381
politics 8% +$45
economics 7% +$85
crypto 2% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.5% -9.1% 56% 56% -14.6%
≤30d 26 +15.9% +4.9% 62% 62% -3.3%
≤90d 26 +15.9% +4.9% 62% 62% -3.3%
all 62 -2.9% -12.2% 55% 45% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 45% -9.8%
10% -20.6% 42% -18.4%
15% -28.2% 37% -26.3%
20% -35.3% 32% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$39 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses34 / 28
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)62 / 69
History coverage246d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $20 +$34 +165%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $101 +$20 +20%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $31 +$41 +134%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$37 +73%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$37 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$31 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$53 +105%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $61 +$35 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$68 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$34 +67%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $64 +$15 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $81 +$46 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $24 +$65 +276%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$53 +105%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $81 −$80 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $61 −$60 -98%
Celtics vs. Pacers Jan 13 $64 −$64 -100%
Jazz vs. Cavaliers Jan 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Spurs vs. Celtics Jan 11 $34 +$46 +133%
Clippers vs. Pistons Jan 11 $32 −$32 -100%
Heat vs. Pacers Jan 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Hawks vs. Nuggets Jan 10 $16 +$14 +82%
Thunder vs. Grizzlies Jan 10 $41 +$39 +96%
Knicks vs. Suns Jan 10 $30 −$30 -100%
76ers vs. Magic Jan 10 $19 −$19 -100%
Pelicans vs. Wizards Jan 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Raptors vs. Celtics Jan 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Mavericks vs. Jazz Jan 09 $15 +$35 +233%
Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves Jan 09 $32 +$38 +122%
Jazz vs. Thunder Jan 08 $44 +$11 +25%
Spurs vs. Grizzlies Jan 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Rockets vs. Kings Dec 22 $34 −$34 -100%
Magic vs. Jazz Dec 22 $15 +$5 +33%
Lakers vs. Clippers Dec 21 $27 −$27 -100%
Suns vs. Warriors Dec 21 $29 +$27 +92%
Packers vs. Bears Dec 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Wizards vs. Grizzlies Dec 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Hornets vs. Pistons Dec 21 $17 $0 +1%
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Dec 20 $75 −$55 -73%
76ers vs. Knicks Dec 20 $48 −$48 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? AND Will Croatia vs. Ghana end BUY 12¢ $30 3h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 7h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 7h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $31 33h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 4d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $61 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY 57¢ $58 6d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 10¢ $21 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 8d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $61 8d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end BUY $15 8d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 9d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 10d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 15¢ $31 10d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 10d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $64 10d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 11d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $127 13d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 13d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $88 13d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $81 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.90 · official $129.13 · 124 history records