Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:10:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
9D 0x9d93…2cf1 sports 603 markets active 1h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$87,025 (-9%) realized −$84,173 · open −$2,852
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate55%329W / 272L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,657per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$6,435est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,434
7 days+$7,716
14 days+$5,857
30 days+$11,564
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$91,016
crypto 1% +$433
other 1% +$1,121
politics 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +39.7% +26.4% 69% 69% +30.9%
≤30d 52 +6.2% -3.9% 54% 52% +8.8%
≤90d 258 -7.8% -16.6% 54% 49% -15.3%
all 601 -9.8% -18.4% 55% 49% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.4% 49% -17.4%
10% ← realistic here -26.2% 41% -25.3%
15% -33.3% 32% -32.5%
20% -39.8% 24% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$2,029) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$750 vs −$1,226 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$84,173
Unrealized−$2,852
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses329 / 272
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$6,435
Open positions2
Markets (closed)601 / 603
History coverage146d
Avg bet$1,657
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 601 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 45¢ 0¢ $1,950 $2 −$1,948 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 52¢ 0¢ $906 $1 −$905 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $2,001 +$2,657 +133%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $1,223 −$1,223 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $1,973 +$1,227 +62%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $1,319 +$1,180 +89%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $2,023 +$1,259 +62%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,217 −$1,217 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $1,045 +$1,094 +105%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $916 +$1,227 +134%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,014 +$815 +80%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,574 −$1,574 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $2,031 +$2,135 +105%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 12 $508 −$508 -100%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $443 +$644 +145%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $504 −$58 -12%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $1,926 +$1,592 +83%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 08 $2,016 +$1,957 +97%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $946 +$1,073 +113%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $1,198 −$1,198 -100%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $855 −$855 -100%
LoL: Barça eSports vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix (BO3) - LES Playoffs Jun 06 $1,855 −$1,855 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $615 −$615 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $1,018 −$1,018 -100%
LoL: MVK Esports vs GAM Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $1,015 −$984 -97%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $1,416 +$101 +7%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $608 −$608 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $426 +$324 +76%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner May 31 $1,263 +$639 +51%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner May 30 $3,081 +$2,276 +74%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner May 30 $1,023 −$1,023 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 30 $611 −$611 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 29 $304 −$286 -94%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 29 $325 +$311 +96%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 29 $2,987 +$1,843 +62%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $509 −$509 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 28 $1,018 −$1,018 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner May 28 $408 −$397 -97%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner May 27 $599 −$599 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner May 27 $1,014 +$907 +89%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 27 $1,011 −$1,011 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 27 $611 +$1,009 +165%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne May 26 $507 +$474 +93%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner May 25 $1,013 −$1,013 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner May 25 $1,982 +$2,146 +108%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 25 $860 −$860 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming - Game 4 Winner May 25 $914 −$914 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $1,014 +$814 +80%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 24 $417 +$530 +127%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 23 $510 +$928 +182%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 3 Winner May 23 $1,195 +$1,516 +127%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 2 May 18 $1,136 +$722 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $4,658 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 42¢ $2,001 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 42¢ $458 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 46¢ $1,524 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 0¢ $3 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 52¢ $1,014 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 51¢ $507 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 45¢ $712 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 24¢ $511 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 59¢ $759 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 62¢ $1,214 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 52¢ $1,319 3d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 61¢ $2,023 3d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner BUY Cloud9 53¢ $1,217 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Team WE 48¢ $1,016 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Team WE 52¢ $29 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Team WE 42¢ $916 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 55¢ $1,014 4d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 48¢ $2,031 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 49¢ $1,574 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY TheMongolz 44¢ $508 5d
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner SELL LOUD 100¢ $1,086 6d
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner BUY LOUD 40¢ $443 6d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 1 Winner SELL Saigon Dino 54¢ $246 7d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 1 Winner SELL Saigon Dino 68¢ $66 7d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 1 Winner SELL Saigon Dino 68¢ $3 7d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 1 Winner SELL Saigon Dino 68¢ $3 7d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 1 Winner SELL Saigon Dino 68¢ $3 7d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 1 Winner SELL Saigon Dino 68¢ $3 7d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 1 Winner SELL Saigon Dino 69¢ $120 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.03 · official $3.03 (match) · 1454 history records