Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T03:15:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9d93…f8f2 other 169 markets active 2h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%16W / 152L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 28% $0
other 25% −$2
politics 21% −$2
economics 10% −$1
crypto 7% −$1
tech 5% −$1
world 3% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.8% -10.3% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 3 -0.8% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.0%
all 168 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses16 / 152
Open positions1
Markets (closed)168 / 169
History coverage164d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 168 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 96¢ 97¢ $35 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 10 $34 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $140 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $39 $0 -1%
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Feb 19 $38 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 19 $101 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 19 $308 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Feb 19 $42 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 19 $46 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? Feb 19 $46 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 19 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 19 $100 $0 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? Feb 19 $38 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 19 $81 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 19 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 19 $39 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 19 $46 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 19 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 19 $90 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 19 $46 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 19 $73 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 16 $138 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Feb 16 $86 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 16 $80 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Feb 16 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 16 $134 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 16 $89 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 16 $102 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 16 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 16 $44 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 16 $78 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 16 $38 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 16 $39 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 16 $45 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 16 $142 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Feb 14 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 14 $46 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 14 $132 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 14 $45 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 14 $201 +$2 +1%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 14 $43 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026? Feb 14 $89 $0 -0%
Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Ol Feb 14 $45 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 14 $95 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 14 $41 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Feb 14 $42 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 14 $39 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Feb 13 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 13 $53 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 13 $48 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $35 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 94¢ $34 14d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $34 14d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $43 25d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $43 26d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $38 39d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $30 40d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $9 40d
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 94¢ $38 125d
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 94¢ $38 125d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $41 125d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $41 125d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 94¢ $37 125d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 95¢ $37 125d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 98¢ $42 125d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 98¢ $42 125d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $46 125d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $46 125d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? SELL No 98¢ $46 125d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? BUY No 98¢ $46 125d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $38 125d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $38 125d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 97¢ $46 125d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 97¢ $46 125d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? SELL No 98¢ $8 125d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? SELL No 96¢ $30 125d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY No 97¢ $30 125d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? SELL No 98¢ $30 125d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? BUY No 98¢ $38 125d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $42 125d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.50 · official $35.50 (match) · 622 history records