Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:40:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
9D 0x9d93…9907 other 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 30d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fresh edge
Total PnL +$421 (+19%) realized +$447 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +41% what you keep after slip
Net edge+41%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate68%23W / 11L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$801now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$334
7 days+$466
14 days+$620
30 days+$620
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$615
sports 14% −$31
crypto 0% +$16
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)+40.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +68.0% +52.0% 71% 68% +38.1%
≤30d 34 +55.5% +40.7% 68% 65% +35.6%
≤90d 34 +55.5% +40.7% 68% 65% +35.6%
all 34 +55.5% +40.7% 68% 65% +35.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +40.7% 65% +35.6%
10% +27.2% 62% +22.6%
15% +14.9% 62% +10.8%
20% +3.7% 53% -0.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +50% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +56% · $-wt +50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +98% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$13 · ×2.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.31 per $1 lost it wins $5.31
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$801
Realized+$447
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses23 / 11
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions14
Markets (closed)34 / 51
History coverage30d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $91 $93 +$1 (+1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $80 $78 −$2 (-2%)
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Yes 57¢ 56¢ $69 $68 −$1 (-1%)
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 35¢ 32¢ $73 $68 −$5 (-7%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 15¢ $50 $61 +$11 (+21%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? No 60¢ 62¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+2%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $30 $3 −$27 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 +$2 +19%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 23 $5 +$44 +856%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$57 +112%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND W Jun 23 $20 +$64 +312%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $202 +$113 +56%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $51 +$19 +38%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$23 +226%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 20 $10 +$16 +153%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$16 +52%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $25 +$14 +57%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$8 +82%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$65 +65%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $20 −$7 -33%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $51 +$26 +52%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $25 −$25 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 +$6 +124%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$30 +146%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $25 +$27 +105%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$2 -17%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $151 +$66 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$33 +108%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $151 +$72 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $49 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY 40¢ $51 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $17 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $70 3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 60¢ $25 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 97¢ $12 23h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY 27¢ $26 23h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND W BUY 3¢ $10 23h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 49¢ $25 23h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 23h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 41¢ $31 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND SELL 79¢ $49 24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 93¢ $108 39h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $10 44h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL 89¢ $70 45h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 63¢ $51 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $10 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND W BUY 24¢ $20 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $800.76 · official $875.77 · 97 history records