Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:22:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
9D 0x9d95…6735 world 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 530d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate41%14W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$3
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$5
sports 31% −$8
other 21% +$1
economics 5% $0
politics 1% −$2
finance 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -2.4% -11.7% 67% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 15 +0.4% -9.1% 53% 7% -8.4%
≤90d 28 -3.1% -12.3% 43% 4% -9.2%
all 34 +4.0% -5.9% 41% 6% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 6% -9.7%
10% -14.9% 3% -18.3%
15% -23.1% 3% -26.2%
20% -30.7% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

530d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses14 / 20
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage530d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $45 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 21 $37 +$2 +6%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $33 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $85 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $79 $0 +1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $3 −$1 -24%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $42 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $4 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $14 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $36 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $32 $0 +0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $98 −$2 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $18 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $96 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 1240-1279 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $104 +$2 +2%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $282 −$1 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $283 $0 -0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 15 $12 +$1 +9%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 15 $39 −$1 -3%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 14 $100 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $283 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will Han Duck-soo win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential elect Mar 31 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Dec 04 $0 $0 +600%
Florida Gulf Coast vs. Austin Peay Feb 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump's inaugural address be 16-18 minutes? Feb 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump's inaugural address be 18-20 minutes? Feb 05 $7 $0 +8%
Will Trump inauguration be the most viewed ever? Jan 21 $2 −$1 -85%
Will the match between Tottenham and Liverpool end in a draw? Jan 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $45 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 59¢ $3 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 59¢ $20 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 59¢ $23 35h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 92¢ $34 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 90¢ $1 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 90¢ $32 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $44 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $44 3d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 3d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $40 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $12 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $28 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 16¢ $2 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 21¢ $3 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $40 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $40 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $37 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $3 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $40 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 27¢ $12 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 27¢ $12 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 9¢ $1 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 9¢ $6 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $1 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $3 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $2 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.29 · official $44.29 (match) · 105 history records