Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:49:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9D
0x9d9c…7b90
world · 104 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$11 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$8 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses40 / 61
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)101 / 104
History coverage545d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 3 History 101 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$3
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 96¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 33¢ 62¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+87%)
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 99¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $187 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $6 +$4 +69%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $195 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $13 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $82 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $91 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $306 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $279 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $91 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $94 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $187 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $94 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $92 −$1 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 29 $86 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $86 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $94 −$25 -26%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $193 +$6 +3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 22 $336 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $36 −$13 -36%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 21 $13 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 19 $116 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 18 $8 $0 -3%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $127 −$2 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 14 $8 $0 -6%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 14 $254 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $16 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $115 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 10 $303 +$1 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 09 $116 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 09 $20 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $26 $0 -1%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $252 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 07 $115 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 06 $52 +$1 +2%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 06 $29 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $5 $0 -6%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 04 $65 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $116 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 02 $237 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026? Mar 31 $121 −$5 -4%
Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? Mar 30 $117 +$5 +5%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 29 $116 $0 +0%
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Mar 29 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Denmark win the televote for Eurovision 2026? Mar 27 $15 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 41% −$19
other 23% +$12
politics 22% +$21
sports 8% −$7
economics 4% +$1
crypto 2% $0
finance 1% −$13
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $94 2m
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $94 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 11¢ $10 9h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $6 11h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $0 11h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $90 11h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $90 13h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $12 21h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 23h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 23h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 23h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $13 27h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $13 29h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $61 32h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $21 34h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $82 35h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 53¢ $48 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 53¢ $34 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 53¢ $14 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 53¢ $68 4d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $78 6d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $4 6d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $82 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $9 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $9 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $91 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +8.7% -1.7% 62% 12% -9.2%
≤30d 25 +0.2% -9.3% 36% 4% -10.5%
≤90d 62 +1.5% -8.1% 27% 5% -9.8%
all 101 +4.1% -5.8% 40% 13% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 13% -9.6%
10% -14.9% 9% -18.3%
15% -23.1% 6% -26.2%
20% -30.6% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.29 · official $0.00 · 436 history records