Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:23:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
9D 0x9da0…4bb0 other 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$92 (+4%) realized +$93 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%28W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$286now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$93
7 days+$153
14 days+$227
30 days+$182
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$179
sports 15% −$111
crypto 2% −$4
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +22.2% +10.5% 69% 65% +0.7%
≤30d 43 +15.1% +4.1% 60% 58% +0.1%
≤90d 53 +2.7% -7.1% 53% 51% -6.4%
all 60 -9.3% -17.9% 47% 45% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 45% -6.9%
10% -25.8% 40% -15.8%
15% -33.0% 38% -23.9%
20% -39.5% 30% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$24 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$286
Realized+$93
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses28 / 32
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions5
Markets (closed)60 / 65
History coverage97d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $100 $100 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $88 $89 +$1 (+1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $51 $51 −$1 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $65 +$36 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $110 +$56 +51%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $2 $0 -11%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $146 −$145 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $159 +$31 +20%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $1 +$2 +233%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $40 +$52 +129%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $62 +$6 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $116 +$56 +48%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $109 +$68 +62%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $54 +$6 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $33 +$18 +55%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $49 −$48 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $13 +$7 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $23 +$17 +76%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 20 $10 +$9 +83%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $23 +$17 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $29 +$17 +60%
Endrick: 1+ goals Jun 19 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $24 −$24 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $50 +$50 +101%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $44 +$56 +129%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $65 −$65 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $47 +$18 +38%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $45 −$44 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $34 +$16 +46%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +36%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +20%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $26 +$24 +93%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $23 +$97 +414%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 +$4 +57%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $68 −$67 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $14 +$6 +42%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $43 +$75 +172%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 10 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $2 $0 -7%
Will Tigres de la UANL win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $24 −$24 -98%
Will Vila Nova FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $27 −$26 -98%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-10? May 09 $39 −$38 -98%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $37 −$36 -97%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 08 $51 −$50 -98%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 06 $83 +$20 +24%
76ers vs. Knicks May 06 $81 −$7 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $27 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 73¢ $89 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $52 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 6h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 6h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $45 9h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 72¢ $146 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $190 12h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $3 12h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $1 27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $159 28h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $40 34h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $65 34h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $65 34h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $62 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $68 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $48 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $58 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $50 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $31 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $49 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $54 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $33 4d
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $10 4d
Endrick: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $7 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $24 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $23 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 56¢ $23 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $13 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $285.55 · official $285.55 (match) · 106 history records