Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:07:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9da2…177b world 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 308d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%14W / 28L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$3
other 28% −$1
politics 12% $0
economics 8% $0
crypto 4% $0
tech 2% $0
sports 2% $0
finance 2% $0
culture 2% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 14 +0.5% -9.1% 43% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 14 +0.5% -9.1% 43% 0% -9.1%
all 42 +0.1% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×3.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.09 per $1 lost it wins $3.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

308d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses14 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage308d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 22 $38 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 02 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 01 $37 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $37 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $41 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $36 +$1 +2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 29 $37 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $36 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $37 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $18 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $36 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $36 +$1 +4%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $36 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $39 $0 +1%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 11 $17 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 11 $22 $0 -1%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 11 $24 +$1 +3%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Sep 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 08 $17 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.10ºC in August 2025? Sep 02 $5 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 26 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will Kai Cenat donate to MrBeast's Team Water by August 22? Aug 22 $22 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 22 $22 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 21 $18 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 21 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 21 $16 $0 +3%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 21 $1 $0 -10%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by August 31? Aug 21 $43 $0 +0%
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? Aug 21 $43 $0 -0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Aug 20 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 20 $43 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 20 $44 −$1 -1%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 19 $44 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 19 $41 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 19 $2 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $38 1h
Trump out as President before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $38 5h
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $38 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $1 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $2 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $12 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $1 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $16 20d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $37 21d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $37 21d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $37 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $37 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $41 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $41 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $36 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $29 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $7 23d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $37 24d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $37 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $27 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $10 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $36 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $15 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $22 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $31 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $6 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $18 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $18 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $11 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $11 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.76 · official $37.76 (match) · 136 history records