Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:08:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
9D 0x9da3…6f0c sports 156 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$64 (+2%) realized +$66 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate48%75W / 80L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days−$76
14 days+$0
30 days+$128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$154
other 30% −$103
crypto 6% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -7.5% -16.3% 45% 45% -15.6%
≤30d 49 +2.1% -7.7% 49% 47% -3.4%
≤90d 119 -5.0% -14.1% 46% 45% -6.7%
all 155 -3.5% -12.7% 48% 45% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 45% -8.6%
10% -21.0% 43% -17.3%
15% -28.6% 39% -25.3%
20% -35.6% 37% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$13 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$66
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses75 / 80
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)155 / 156
History coverage127d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 155 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Yes 58¢ 55¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $61 +$41 +67%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $62 +$18 +29%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $20 +$30 +145%
United States vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $22 −$22 -98%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner Jun 19 $15 −$15 -99%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -97%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 18 $41 +$43 +105%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $53 −$52 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Set 1 Winner: Ofner vs Baena Jun 18 $61 −$60 -99%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $61 −$60 -98%
England vs. Croatia: England 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $51 +$39 +76%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $47 +$56 +120%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $57 −$18 -31%
Roberto Carballes Baena vs. Stefano Travaglia: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $45 +$57 +128%
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 16 $50 −$49 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $36 −$35 -98%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $1 $0 +36%
Bellucci vs. Bublik: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 16 $90 −$89 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $61 +$42 +69%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $46 +$56 +123%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $15 +$36 +237%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $44 −$43 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $57 +$45 +79%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$29 +95%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $66 +$35 +53%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $30 +$31 +101%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $61 −$17 -28%
Set Handicap: Kyrgios (-1.5) vs Shimabukuro (+1.5) Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $10 +$13 +123%
Kyrgios vs. Moutet: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 09 $20 +$35 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 05 $105 −$7 -6%
Matteo Arnaldi vs. Flavio Cobolli: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $30 −$8 -26%
Jakub Mensik vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $30 +$16 +54%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Jodar (+1.5) Jun 02 $96 +$52 +54%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $97 −$1 -1%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $63 +$7 +10%
Cerundolo vs. Berrettini: Match O/U 40.5 Jun 01 $50 +$40 +79%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Jong (+2.5) Jun 01 $30 +$23 +76%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $17 +$13 +73%
Set Handicap: Vacherot (-2.5) vs Faurel (+2.5) May 26 $8 −$3 -37%
Roland Garros ATP: Ignacio Buse vs Andrey Rublev May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Mattia Bellucci May 24 $3 −$2 -98%
Will US Catanzaro 1929 win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $4 −$4 -98%
Buse vs. Paul: Match O/U 22.5 May 23 $6 +$5 +84%
Set Handicap: Buse (-1.5) vs Humbert (+1.5) May 21 $5 −$4 -81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $41 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $102 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $61 21h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 79¢ $80 21h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $62 23h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Frances Tiafoe 100¢ $50 23h
United States vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $22 26h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner BUY Laslo Djere 51¢ $15 29h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon $10 30h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 40¢ $20 34h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $25 47h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 2d
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena SELL Sebastian Ofner 100¢ $83 2d
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Sebastian Ofner 48¢ $41 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $53 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 2d
Set 1 Winner: Ofner vs Baena BUY Ofner 58¢ $61 2d
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under $1 2d
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 60¢ $61 2d
England vs. Croatia: England 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $89 2d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $103 2d
England vs. Croatia: England 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $51 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 3d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $47 3d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 39¢ $39 3d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $57 3d
Roberto Carballes Baena vs. Stefano Travaglia: Total Sets O/U 2.5 SELL Over 2.5 100¢ $102 3d
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Stefano Travaglia 16¢ $15 3d
Roberto Carballes Baena vs. Stefano Travaglia: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 43¢ $45 3d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 48¢ $50 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.59 · official $39.66 · 293 history records