Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:24:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9D 0x9da9…453f sports 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$129 (+8%) realized +$130 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%16W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$115
7 days−$175
14 days−$175
30 days−$175
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$233
sports 47% +$375
crypto 4% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -3.8% -13.0% 41% 36% -25.8%
≤30d 22 -3.8% -13.0% 41% 36% -25.8%
≤90d 30 +10.2% -0.3% 50% 47% -0.4%
all 36 +1.8% -7.9% 44% 42% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 42% -2.6%
10% -16.7% 42% -12.0%
15% -24.7% 39% -20.5%
20% -32.1% 36% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$36 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized+$130
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses16 / 20
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage98d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $115 $113 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $151 +$63 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $99 +$52 +52%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $174 −$172 -99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +98%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 +$15 +282%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 +$16 +156%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $62 −$60 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $51 +$187 +365%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $51 +$49 +97%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $51 −$37 -73%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $17 −$17 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $102 +$239 +234%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $51 +$68 +134%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $45 +$33 +73%
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) May 10 $50 +$13 +26%
UFC 328: Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon (Lightweight, Prelims) May 10 $49 −$49 -100%
UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims) May 10 $51 +$35 +70%
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims) May 10 $51 +$27 +54%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 09 $51 −$50 -99%
Solana Up or Down - March 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Mar 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Solana Up or Down - March 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Mar 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Mar 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Solana Up or Down - March 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Mar 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Mar 12 $15 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Mar 12 $10 +$17 +172%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $116 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $52 32h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $48 32h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $52 32h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $99 36h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $71 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? SELL Yes 25¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? SELL Yes 9¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? SELL Yes 16¢ $26 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $71 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Derrick Lewis 6¢ $14 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 26¢ $17 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.49 · official $113.49 (match) · 67 history records