Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:15:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
9D 0x9daf…f56d crypto 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate69%22W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day27.6pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% −$57
other 35% −$35
crypto 18% +$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +2.5% -7.3% 69% 56% -3.1%
≤30d 32 +2.5% -7.3% 69% 56% -3.1%
≤90d 32 +2.5% -7.3% 69% 56% -3.1%
all 32 +2.5% -7.3% 69% 56% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.3% 56% -3.1%
10% ← realistic here -16.1% 34% -12.4%
15% -24.2% 22% -20.9%
20% -31.7% 16% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$43 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses22 / 10
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage3d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day27.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$6 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$27 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $82 +$17 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $62 +$9 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$11 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$27 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$14 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$7 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$17 +33%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $188 −$74 -39%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $178 +$11 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $181 −$3 -2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $163 +$18 +11%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $142 +$21 +15%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $90 +$51 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $220 −$130 -59%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $389 −$162 -42%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $389 $0 +0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $367 +$22 +6%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $282 +$84 +30%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $230 +$52 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 99 history records