Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:03:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9db0…0f6a crypto 505 markets active 0h ago coverage 52d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 51d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$17,488 (-37%) realized −$17,116 · open −$372
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate42%202W / 283L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day57.4pace
Fees−$538est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$1,312now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 52d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$245
other 22% −$1,340
crypto 18% −$530
world 1% −$209
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 -21.4% -28.8% 42% 35% -9.5%
≤30d 399 -15.1% -23.2% 37% 33% -23.9%
≤90d 485 -8.0% -16.7% 42% 35% -12.4%
all 485 -8.0% -16.7% 42% 35% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.7% 35% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -24.7% 34% -20.8%
15% -32.0% 26% -28.4%
20% -38.6% 24% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +32% → late -48% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$56 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$1,312
Realized−$17,116
Unrealized−$372
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses202 / 283
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$538
Open positions13
Markets (closed)485 / 505
History coverage52d ⚠
Avg bet$95
Trades / day57.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 485 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1,070 $825 −$245 (-23%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 14¢ 9¢ $164 $107 −$57 (-35%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $132 $91 −$41 (-31%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $46 $45 −$1 (-2%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $31 $16 −$16 (-50%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-15%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $9 $6 −$2 (-28%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-7%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-25%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+25%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $160 +$40 +25%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $141 −$141 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $108 −$108 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $160 +$40 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $195 +$38 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $48 −$17 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $70 −$18 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $70 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $272 +$128 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $46 −$44 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $44 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $210 −$10 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $45 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $162 +$38 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $81 −$81 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $62 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $150 −$10 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $121 −$21 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $276 +$24 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $164 +$36 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $201 +$99 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 18 $71 +$41 +57%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $71 −$21 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 18 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 18 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $159 −$159 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $32 −$32 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $46 18m
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 58m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $0 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $141 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,312.21 · official $1,311.64 (match) · 3500 history records