trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -56.0% | -60.2% | 33% | 33% | -92.2% |
| ≤30d | 14 | -90.6% | -91.5% | 7% | 7% | -99.5% |
| ≤90d | 21 | -91.6% | -92.4% | 5% | 5% | -97.0% |
| all | 21 | -91.6% | -92.4% | 5% | 5% | -97.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -92.4% | 5% | -97.0% |
| 10% | -93.1% | 5% | -97.3% |
| 15% | -93.8% | 0% | -97.6% |
| 20% | -94.4% | 0% | -97.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? | No | 0¢ | 0¢ | $70 | $35 | −$35 (-50%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET | Jun 20 | $5 | −$4 | -94% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? | Jun 20 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 18 | $1 | $0 | +32% |
| U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? | Jun 13 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 13? | Jun 12 | $11 | −$10 | -94% |
| Will SpaceX list on the NASDAQ? | Jun 12 | $0 | $0 | -96% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET | Jun 09 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, | May 27 | $16 | −$16 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, | May 27 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 2 | May 27 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET | May 25 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET | May 25 | $11 | −$10 | -94% |
| Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? | May 25 | $149 | −$149 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 22, | May 22 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 2 | May 21 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 2 | May 21 | $41 | −$40 | -96% |
| Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 22, | May 21 | $21 | −$20 | -96% |
| Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 2 | May 21 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET | May 15 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET | May 14 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | May 14 | $22 | −$12 | -56% |