Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:36:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9db3…1d38 world 208 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$270 (+6%) realized +$345 · open −$75
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate75%135W / 44L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day30.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$751now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$245
7 days+$233
14 days+$208
30 days+$335
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$158
other 15% +$10
crypto 10% +$93
politics 8% +$14
sports 7% −$11
tech 6% −$11
finance 2% +$5
economics 2% +$3
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 -2.5% -11.8% 68% 6% +2.6%
≤30d 179 -2.6% -11.9% 75% 9% -0.5%
≤90d 179 -2.6% -11.9% 75% 9% -0.5%
all 179 -2.6% -11.9% 75% 9% -0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.9% 9% -0.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 3% -10.0%
15% -28.0% 2% -18.7%
20% -35.1% 2% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.58 per $1 lost it wins $5.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$751
Realized+$345
Unrealized−$75
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses135 / 44
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions29
Markets (closed)179 / 208
History coverage19d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day30.7
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 179 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 87¢ 78¢ $459 $413 −$47 (-10%)
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $17.5B by June 30? No 87¢ 97¢ $39 $44 +$4 (+11%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 43¢ 62¢ $27 $38 +$12 (+44%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $29 $38 +$9 (+29%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $34 $33 −$1 (-2%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 74¢ $37 $30 −$7 (-19%)
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $315 in June? No 99¢ 97¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $480 in June? No 93¢ 96¢ $19 $19 +$1 (+4%)
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $20 end of June? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $150B by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $25B by June 30? No 88¢ 98¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+12%)
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $345 in June? No 97¢ 89¢ $10 $10 −$1 (-8%)
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No 79¢ 81¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $40 end of June? Yes 98¢ 70¢ $11 $8 −$3 (-29%)
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $110B by June 30? No 90¢ 92¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? No 89¢ 98¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Will AfD win the second most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? No 95¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027? No 92¢ 95¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027? No 91¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 19¢ 14¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-29%)
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? No 54¢ 76¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+40%)
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027? No 77¢ 76¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 68¢ 74¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+10%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 82¢ 60¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-26%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 54¢ 56¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 18 $20 +$3 +15%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 18 $45 +$49 +107%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $707 +$105 +15%
Testing Group Event 1 Jun 17 $6 −$1 -17%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $85 +$88 +104%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $101 +$1 +1%
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 16 $13 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 16 $11 $0 +2%
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $30B by June 30? Jun 16 $37 −$1 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $12 −$7 -58%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 15 $17 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $16 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026? Jun 15 $15 $0 -1%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 15 $14 $0 +2%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $180 end of June? Jun 15 $11 $0 +2%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Jun 15 $7 +$2 +26%
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Jun 15 $7 $0 +1%
Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30? Jun 15 $7 $0 -2%
Nothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto Jun 15 $6 $0 -1%
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by June 30? Jun 15 $6 $0 +3%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by June 30? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $50B by June 30? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Jun 15 $5 $0 -2%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 15 $5 $0 -10%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027? Jun 15 $4 $0 -3%
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $100B by June 30? Jun 15 $4 $0 -2%
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliam Jun 15 $4 $0 -2%
Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliame Jun 15 $5 $0 -2%
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $16.5B by June 30? Jun 15 $5 $0 -3%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Ju Jun 15 $5 $0 -2%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $4 $0 +8%
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 -5%
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? Jun 15 $4 $0 +9%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary e Jun 15 $5 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Mohammed bin Salman by June 30, 2026 Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31? Jun 15 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $225B by June 30? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 15 $4 $0 +5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $4 $0 +9%
Will Michael Jackson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic IPO by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 85¢ $4 55m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 82¢ $82 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 87¢ $13 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 61¢ $13 3h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 88¢ $5 3h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $23 4h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $5 4h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 9¢ $7 5h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 90¢ $9 5h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 9¢ $7 5h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 90¢ $81 5h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 91¢ $25 5h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 90¢ $9 5h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 91¢ $91 5h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 90¢ $19 5h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 91¢ $109 5h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $10 5h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 6h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $23 6h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 65¢ $8 14h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $11 14h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 92¢ $73 15h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 88¢ $18 15h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 15h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 88¢ $7 15h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 62¢ $12 15h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 52¢ $5 16h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $4 16h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $7 17h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $751.25 · official $740.81 · 653 history records