Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:07:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9db8…2eff sports 79 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 9d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (373 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$47,740 (+22%) realized +$47,663 · open +$77
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate45%35W / 43L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,719per market
Trades / day373.0pace
Fees−$3,784est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1,012now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$30,980
other 32% −$28,053
crypto 0% −$360
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (373 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 +0.6% -9.0% 46% 23% -6.9%
≤30d 78 -1.4% -10.8% 45% 23% -8.5%
≤90d 78 -1.4% -10.8% 45% 23% -8.5%
all 78 -1.4% -10.8% 45% 23% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover373.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 23% -8.5%
10% -19.3% 23% -17.2%
15% ← realistic here -27.1% 22% -25.2%
20% -34.2% 22% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$4,107) neutral
Persistence
early +16% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
30.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,203 vs −$2,549 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$1,012
Realized+$47,663
Unrealized+$77
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses35 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$3,784
Open positions1
Markets (closed)78 / 79
History coverage9d ⚠
Avg bet$2,719
Trades / day373.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England to score first vs. Panama? No 15¢ 16¢ $934 $1,012 +$77 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu Jun 27 $7,318 +$13,787 +188%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $3,892 +$91 +2%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $974 −$974 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1,080 −$1,080 -100%
Egypt to score first vs. IR Iran? Jun 27 $1,842 −$1,839 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $7,410 −$6,007 -81%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $7,220 −$7,220 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $850 −$841 -99%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 26 $8,703 +$6,664 +77%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 26 $8,764 −$8,764 -100%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $8,770 +$10,290 +117%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $1,770 −$1,770 -100%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $7,410 −$7,332 -99%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $1 $0 -2%
Japan to score first vs. Sweden? Jun 25 $195 +$6 +3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $7,262 +$11,807 +163%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $4,631 −$4,631 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $5 +$1 +26%
Brazil to score first vs. Scotland? Jun 25 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $2,266 −$2,266 -100%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $2,487 −$2,412 -97%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: South Africa O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $1 $0 +3%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $4,868 +$4,946 +102%
Morocco to score first vs. Haiti? Jun 24 $2,443 +$9,397 +385%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $1,543 +$53 +3%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $3,466 −$3,387 -98%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $306 −$298 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $265 +$11 +4%
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $1,293 +$48 +4%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $6,636 −$6,636 -100%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $5,134 +$15,879 +309%
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $4,205 +$75 +2%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $5,803 −$3,261 -56%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $5,402 −$5,402 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $45 −$45 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $92 −$1 -1%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $2,090 −$2,090 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3,030 −$3,030 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,383 −$1,383 -100%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $17,880 −$7,162 -40%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $10 $0 -4%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $2,661 +$161 +6%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $110 −$39 -35%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $6,048 −$6,048 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $46 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4,033 +$5,976 +148%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $1,276 +$20 +2%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $4,107 +$79 +2%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $36 +$59 +165%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England to score first vs. Panama? BUY No 16¢ $1 18m
England to score first vs. Panama? BUY No 16¢ $238 20m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Yellow Submarine 100¢ $12,498 22m
England to score first vs. Panama? BUY No 15¢ $158 23m
England to score first vs. Panama? BUY No 15¢ $4 24m
England to score first vs. Panama? BUY No 15¢ $553 26m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Yellow Submarine 100¢ $3,310 26m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Yellow Submarine 90¢ $5,283 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Yellow Submarine 34¢ $988 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Yellow Submarine 33¢ $2 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Yellow Submarine 33¢ $0 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Yellow Submarine 33¢ $43 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Yellow Submarine 33¢ $35 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Yellow Submarine 33¢ $28 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Yellow Submarine 33¢ $2 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Yellow Submarine 33¢ $36 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Yellow Submarine 33¢ $13 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Yellow Submarine 33¢ $3 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Yellow Submarine 33¢ $5 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Yellow Submarine 33¢ $0 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Yellow Submarine 33¢ $1 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Yellow Submarine 33¢ $1 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Yellow Submarine 33¢ $379 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Yellow Submarine 33¢ $404 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Yellow Submarine 33¢ $379 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Yellow Submarine 33¢ $505 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Yellow Submarine 33¢ $1,010 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Yellow Submarine 33¢ $2,020 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Yellow Submarine 33¢ $12 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Yellow Submarine 32¢ $477 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,011.69 · official $1,011.69 (match) · 3500 history records