Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:39:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9dbc…30ad crypto 189 markets active 2h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,914 (-10%) realized −$1,867 · open −$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%72W / 110L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$223now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$1,486
14 days−$1,460
30 days−$1,211
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$776
other 30% −$1,497
world 6% −$315
sports 2% −$5
culture 1% +$84
politics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -75.5% -77.8% 13% 13% -61.5%
≤30d 40 -16.7% -24.7% 28% 28% -35.4%
≤90d 68 -12.2% -20.5% 37% 35% -32.2%
all 182 -14.2% -22.4% 40% 38% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 38% -21.1%
10% -29.8% 38% -28.7%
15% -36.6% 37% -35.6%
20% -42.8% 34% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$94 vs −$84 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$223
Realized−$1,867
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses72 / 110
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)182 / 189
History coverage171d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 182 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 54¢ 42¢ $100 $79 −$21 (-21%)
Andrej Kramarić: 2+ shots Yes 67¢ 50¢ $100 $75 −$25 (-25%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 24¢ $50 $62 +$12 (+24%)
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 0 Ghana? Yes 12¢ 4¢ $20 $7 −$12 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $521 −$15 -3%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $29 −$28 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $305 +$219 +72%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $202 −$200 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $101 +$44 +43%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? Jun 23 $206 −$130 -63%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 23 $408 −$408 -100%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? Jun 23 $617 −$357 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 21 $57 +$39 +70%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$46 +46%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$63 +62%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$49 +97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $203 +$139 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $231 +$156 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $84 −$84 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $308 −$308 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $304 +$198 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 01 $5 +$47 +890%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $30 +$201 +671%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 15 $51 +$33 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 10 $120 +$87 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Apr 14 $50 +$38 +76%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 14 $87 +$136 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Apr 07 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Apr 06 $10 +$10 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 06 $110 +$48 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 06 $10 +$22 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Apr 06 $100 +$81 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Apr 06 $212 −$212 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 1h
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 1h
Andrej Kramarić: 2+ shots BUY Yes 67¢ $101 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 95¢ $776 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 5¢ $15 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $506 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $29 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY 1¢ $10 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 9¢ $15 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 74¢ $525 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $305 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $202 4d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 100¢ $145 4d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 69¢ $101 4d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $101 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 6d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 6d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $223.07 · official $232.51 · 718 history records