Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:33:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9dbd…e893 sports 1500 markets active 0h ago coverage 57d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 56d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$32 (+2%) realized +$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate63%932W / 544L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day33.0pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$1
other 23% −$28
world 0% +$2
crypto 0% +$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 103 +11.8% +1.2% 60% 45% -3.6%
≤30d 112 +12.3% +1.6% 61% 45% -3.0%
≤90d 1476 -0.2% -9.7% 63% 51% -10.9%
all 1476 -0.2% -9.7% 63% 51% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 51% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 40% -19.4%
15% -26.2% 31% -27.2%
20% -33.4% 22% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized+$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses932 / 544
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions24
Markets (closed)1476 / 1500
History coverage57d ⚠
Avg bet$1
Trades / day33.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 1476 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Egypt 64¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+49%)
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Canada 26¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 25¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) IR Iran 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Over 74¢ 78¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 84¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? No 70¢ 72¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? No 78¢ 80¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 43¢ 44¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 52¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Over 87¢ 86¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Saudi Arabia 81¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? No 82¢ 81¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? No 73¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5) New York Mets 73¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? No 74¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? No 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 80¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 58¢ 53¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? No 78¢ 69¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? No 88¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Royan: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Alejandro Moro Canas Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +40%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $1 $0 +46%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $2 −$1 -30%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 +$1 +67%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $3 +$1 +20%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +129%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5) Jun 15 $1 +$1 +146%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 +$1 +35%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +52%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
ITF Guimaraes: Aliona Falei vs Savannah Broadus Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -29%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +26%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +32%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +48%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +17%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +134%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +79%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 12 $1 $0 +11%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $1 +$1 +90%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +44%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +42%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $2 −$1 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 22m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 24m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 36m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 64¢ $1 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 88¢ $1 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 81¢ $1 1h
Royan: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Alejandro Moro Canas BUY Carlos Sanchez Jover 84¢ $1 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 2h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 58¢ $1 2h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $1 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.69 · official $23.69 (match) · 3500 history records