Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:18:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9dbe…053d world 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 233d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$109 (+4%) realized +$109 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate46%12W / 14L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% +$26
sports 20% +$83
economics 15% +$1
finance 13% +$1
politics 10% −$2
other 5% +$2
crypto 5% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 4 -16.8% -24.7% 50% 25% +2.2%
all 26 -4.4% -13.5% 46% 8% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 8% -5.9%
10% -21.8% 8% -14.9%
15% -29.3% 4% -23.1%
20% -36.2% 4% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% too few recent
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$9 · ×2.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.84 per $1 lost it wins $1.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$109
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses12 / 14
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage233d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Thunder vs. Lakers May 11 $47 −$46 -98%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 27 $84 −$82 -98%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March? Apr 02 $369 +$1 +0%
Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves Mar 23 $159 +$211 +133%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 12 $158 +$1 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Mar 02 $158 +$4 +3%
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026? Feb 06 $156 +$3 +2%
US strikes Iran by January 27, 2026? Jan 30 $153 +$2 +1%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 25 $143 +$7 +5%
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? Jan 19 $120 +$10 +9%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 14 $2 $0 -12%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 12 $136 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jan 03 $138 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 29 $135 +$1 +1%
Maduro out in 2025? Dec 23 $4 +$1 +28%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 17 $128 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 05 $1 $0 -11%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 03 $128 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 30 $1 $0 -9%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 27 $128 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,800 in November? Nov 21 $1 −$1 -50%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 19 $136 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 17 $5 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 13 $128 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 09 $2 $0 -10%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 04 $129 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $27 1h
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 19¢ $47 37d
Thunder vs. Suns BUY Suns 20¢ $84 51d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March? BUY No 100¢ $369 80d
Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves BUY Trail Blazers 43¢ $159 89d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee SELL Yes 99¢ $159 97d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 99¢ $158 104d
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $158 128d
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $156 136d
US strikes Iran by January 27, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $153 141d
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $143 147d
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $120 153d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $2 154d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes $2 155d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 96¢ $135 156d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $136 159d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $138 169d
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 97¢ $136 170d
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 96¢ $135 171d
Maduro out in 2025? SELL Yes $6 176d
Maduro out in 2025? BUY Yes $4 178d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL No 98¢ $128 182d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $128 184d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL Yes $1 194d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY Yes $1 195d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $128 196d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $128 197d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? SELL Yes $1 199d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes $1 201d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 98¢ $128 202d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.56 · official $26.56 (match) · 55 history records