Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:55:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9dbe…b1b1 other 208 markets active 1h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$289 (+3%) realized +$252 · open +$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate52%100W / 93L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$508now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$65
7 days−$68
14 days−$123
30 days+$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$91
sports 43% −$2
politics 5% −$98
crypto 2% −$18
finance 2% +$47
economics 1% −$126
world 1% +$58
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -17.8% -25.6% 44% 44% -24.9%
≤30d 28 -3.1% -12.3% 50% 50% -5.9%
≤90d 67 -16.9% -24.8% 45% 43% -19.9%
all 193 +15.5% +4.5% 52% 46% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.5% 46% -10.9%
10% -5.5% 45% -19.4%
15% -14.7% 41% -27.2%
20% -23.0% 40% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$42 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$508
Realized+$252
Unrealized+$37
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses100 / 93
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions15
Markets (closed)193 / 208
History coverage228d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 193 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 90¢ $50 $92 +$42 (+85%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 76¢ $55 $77 +$22 (+41%)
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 14¢ 64¢ $15 $68 +$53 (+354%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? No 50¢ 50¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Will Egypt reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 42¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+0%)
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? No 26¢ 24¢ $26 $24 −$2 (-6%)
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 46¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+20%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 20¢ $28 $20 −$8 (-28%)
Will Netherlands reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 24¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+7%)
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 4¢ $34 $4 −$30 (-88%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 23¢ 1¢ $46 $1 −$45 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 93 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $51 +$65 +129%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 +$30 +60%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 +$16 +62%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $51 +$45 +90%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $34 +$76 +226%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $47 −$46 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $24 +$26 +113%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $41 +$19 +45%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $20 +$30 +150%
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Italy be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 29 $43 +$17 +39%
Will Ukraine be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 29 $44 +$16 +37%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-02? May 29 $50 +$49 +96%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 29 $59 +$41 +70%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-02? May 29 $51 +$49 +97%
Arsenal FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 2.5 May 29 $50 +$50 +100%
Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 3.5 May 07 $50 −$49 -98%
Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5 May 07 $48 −$47 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-10? May 04 $38 −$37 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $43 +$34 +79%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? Apr 30 $47 −$46 -98%
Newcastle United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 30 $69 −$68 -99%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $52 −$51 -98%
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 23 $60 −$59 -99%
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) Apr 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 23 $50 −$49 -98%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 23 $49 +$25 +52%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 23 $50 +$35 +70%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-04-18? Apr 23 $36 +$59 +165%
Crystal Palace FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 23 $90 +$9 +10%
Spread: Brighton & Hove Albion FC (-1.5) Apr 23 $40 +$60 +150%
Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 23 $50 +$50 +100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 23 $106 +$93 +87%
Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $50 −$49 -99%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Everton FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $42 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 26¢ $27 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 50¢ $51 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 4d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Ghana 43¢ $51 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 39¢ $51 6d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 42¢ $51 6d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 52¢ $51 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $25 6d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 52¢ $51 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 6d
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 6d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 37¢ $10 9d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $40 9d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $47 10d
Will Netherlands reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 10d
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 10d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $56 10d
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $25 10d
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 10d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 10d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $15 10d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $34 10d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 11d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Under 61¢ $25 11d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $24 12d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 12d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $41 13d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 40¢ $20 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $508.29 · official $508.63 (match) · 421 history records