Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:52:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9dc1…580f other 158 markets active 2h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,219 (+12%) realized +$646 · open +$573
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%43W / 90L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$4,954now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$116
7 days+$131
14 days+$1,119
30 days+$797
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$1,116
sports 13% +$144
world 6% +$92
finance 5% −$40
politics 4% −$164
crypto 2% +$14
economics 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +24.9% +13.0% 56% 56% +22.5%
≤30d 68 -6.1% -15.1% 29% 29% +35.5%
≤90d 133 -3.1% -12.3% 32% 32% +0.9%
all 133 -3.1% -12.3% 32% 32% +0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 32% +0.9%
10% -20.7% 30% -8.7%
15% -28.4% 24% -17.5%
20% -35.4% 22% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 58% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$17 · ×2.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$4,954
Realized+$646
Unrealized+$573
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses43 / 90
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions21
Markets (closed)133 / 158
History coverage81d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $2,154 $2,676 +$522 (+24%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 17¢ $815 $907 +$92 (+11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $444 $397 −$47 (-11%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $244 $277 +$33 (+14%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $172 $167 −$5 (-3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $137 $108 −$29 (-21%)
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $88 $106 +$18 (+21%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $82 $106 +$24 (+29%)
New pandemic in 2026? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $56 $53 −$3 (-5%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 26¢ $23 $27 +$4 (+15%)
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $33 $21 −$11 (-35%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $23 $20 −$3 (-14%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $15 $9 −$6 (-42%)
Will a player representing Portugal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $6 $6 −$1 (-9%)
US recession by end of 2026? Yes 36¢ 16¢ $12 $5 −$7 (-57%)
Will Bruno Fernandes be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-31%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 +$34 +165%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $15 +$32 +212%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $6 +$13 +207%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $26 +$25 +93%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $17 +$15 +86%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $27 +$22 +79%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $12 +$7 +55%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $18 −$18 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $23 +$22 +97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Korea Republic win on 202 Jun 12 $8 +$10 +128%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $33 +$15 +44%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 11 $10 −$1 -11%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $9 $0 -4%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $21 +$9 +42%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $30 +$10 +34%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Kyrgios vs. Moutet: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 09 $5 +$9 +172%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $33 −$33 -99%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $6 +$8 +124%
Will Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 08 $7 −$3 -46%
Will France vs. Northern Ireland end in a draw? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Northern Ireland? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Northern Ireland? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Northern Ireland? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 08 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $55 −$44 -80%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $67 +$1,095 +1631%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 04 $40 −$39 -98%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $13 −$8 -62%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 01 $57 −$56 -98%
Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -94%
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer May 31 $15 +$28 +180%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 31 $14 +$33 +226%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $64 +$126 +196%
Desire Doue: Anytime Goalscorer May 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer May 28 $10 −$10 -98%
StandX FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 26 $4 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Alex De Minaur win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 24 $41 −$41 -100%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $79 −$3 -4%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $33 −$8 -23%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $168 −$28 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 23 $4 −$4 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $4 1h
New pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $55 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $13 3h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will No BUY 47¢ $14 3h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $21 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $54 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $48 3h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 3h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $4 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 37¢ $20 4h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 32¢ $6 4h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 31¢ $15 5h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 23h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY 56¢ $33 23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $32 23h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $49 24h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 AND Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 AND Nethe BUY 55¢ $33 32h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $17 32h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $13 32h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $7 32h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $13 32h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $7 37h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $12 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Korea Republic vs. Czechi BUY 31¢ $10 4d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes 5¢ $9 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,954.12 · official $4,967.81 (match) · 494 history records