Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:11:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
9D 0x9dc1…ebc6 other 37 markets active 14h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$67 (+30%) realized +$62 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate47%14W / 16L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$42
14 days+$43
30 days+$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 53% +$31
other 20% +$4
crypto 14% +$13
sports 6% +$5
world 6% +$6
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -23.4% -30.7% 32% 32% +30.2%
≤30d 30 -0.3% -9.8% 47% 33% +25.8%
≤90d 30 -0.3% -9.8% 47% 33% +25.8%
all 30 -0.3% -9.8% 47% 33% +25.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 33% +25.8%
10% -18.4% 30% +13.7%
15% -26.3% 23% +2.7%
20% -33.5% 20% -7.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +39% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +46% → late -46% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×4.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.1 per $1 lost it wins $4.1
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized+$62
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses14 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)30 / 37
History coverage20d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 88¢ 86¢ $53 $51 −$2 (-3%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 77¢ 99¢ $15 $19 +$4 (+29%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? Yes 28¢ 97¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+247%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%? Yes 51¢ 40¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-23%)
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? Yes 42¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+34%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+26%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 $0 -14%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 20 $6 +$6 +98%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $5 +$2 +50%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -86%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$8 +26%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 17 $27 +$28 +105%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -73%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 +$1 +19%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$13 +431%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 +$2 +180%
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian Jun 13 $1 $0 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +5%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 08 $13 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 05 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 03 $5 +$9 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +9%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $1 +$1 +101%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $1 $0 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 35¢ $1 18h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 18h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $53 21h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 5¢ $0 23h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 15¢ $1 24h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $7 24h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 91¢ $8 24h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 34h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 34h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 34h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $1 40h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 22¢ $1 42h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $5 46h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 46h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY Yes 42¢ $1 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 82¢ $4 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 86¢ $28 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 4d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 98¢ $41 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY No 16¢ $1 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? SELL No 6¢ $0 4d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY No 21¢ $1 4d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 79¢ $8 4d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 42¢ $1 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $7 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.38 · official $80.39 (match) · 76 history records