Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:13:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
9D 0x9dc2…31a2 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 35d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$31 (-8%) realized −$36 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +8.2% -2.1% 100% 0% -2.1%
≤30d 6 -10.6% -19.1% 83% 0% -22.9%
≤90d 7 -11.3% -19.7% 71% 0% -22.9%
all 7 -11.3% -19.7% 71% 0% -22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 0% -22.9%
10% -27.4% 0% -30.3%
15% -34.4% 0% -37.0%
20% -40.9% 0% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$25 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$130
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage35d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 99¢ $75 $81 +$6 (+8%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026? No 93¢ 90¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $50 +$4 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $35 +$3 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? Jun 01 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $5 −$1 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.71 · official $129.71 (match) · 18 history records