Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:15:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9dc5…88f9 crypto 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$125 (-0%) realized −$125 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate49%37W / 38L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$407per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$104
7 days−$379
14 days−$1,012
30 days−$685
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$565
weather 26% +$85
finance 1% −$17
other 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-29.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -29.6% -36.3% 50% 25% -12.2%
≤30d 29 -20.1% -27.7% 52% 31% -11.5%
≤90d 75 -21.9% -29.3% 49% 28% -10.1%
all 75 -21.9% -29.3% 49% 28% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.3% 28% -10.1%
10% -36.1% 17% -18.7%
15% -42.2% 16% -26.5%
20% -47.9% 15% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$527) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -18% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$89 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$125
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses37 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)75 / 75
History coverage59d
Avg bet$407
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 75 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $316 −$104 -33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $569 −$369 -65%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $518 +$58 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1,025 +$35 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1,346 +$44 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $639 +$92 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $504 −$151 -30%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $47 +$80 +170%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $1,019 +$81 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $2,025 −$351 -17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $510 −$417 -82%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $103 +$44 +43%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $527 +$116 +22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 28? May 28 $2,409 +$246 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 28? May 28 $302 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 27? May 27 $1,526 +$94 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 26? May 26 $598 +$107 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 25? May 25 $1,343 +$97 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 24? May 24 $701 +$135 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 23? May 23 $123 −$121 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 21? May 21 $1,018 +$108 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 21? May 20 $24 −$19 -82%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 20? May 20 $449 +$83 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 21? May 20 $200 −$178 -89%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 22? May 19 $105 −$100 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 19? May 19 $200 −$110 -55%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 18? May 18 $161 −$153 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 18? May 18 $158 −$22 -14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 19? May 16 $201 −$201 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 18? May 16 $150 −$145 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 15? May 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 15? May 15 $152 +$110 +72%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on May 15? May 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on May 15? May 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 15? May 14 $149 −$16 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 15? May 14 $148 +$41 +28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 14? May 14 $1,499 +$191 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 13? May 13 $149 +$281 +188%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 19? May 13 $202 −$202 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 13? May 13 $149 −$89 -60%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on May 13? May 12 $7 −$7 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on May 11? May 11 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 10? May 09 $105 +$189 +179%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 10? May 08 $107 +$90 +84%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 11? May 08 $100 +$100 +100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 8? May 08 $107 +$98 +92%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 8? May 07 $98 +$86 +88%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 11? May 07 $101 −$101 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 7? May 06 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 54¢ $135 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 53¢ $77 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 76¢ $93 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 76¢ $224 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 21¢ $48 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 11? SELL Yes 15¢ $167 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 45¢ $248 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 44¢ $66 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 39¢ $203 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 10? SELL Yes 65¢ $436 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 10? SELL Yes 66¢ $5 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 10? SELL Yes 66¢ $20 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 10? SELL Yes 66¢ $5 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 10? SELL Yes 66¢ $45 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 10? SELL Yes 66¢ $66 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 56¢ $518 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 9? SELL Yes 78¢ $124 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 9? SELL Yes 78¢ $372 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 9? SELL Yes 78¢ $5 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 9? SELL Yes 77¢ $113 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 69¢ $206 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 68¢ $348 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 9? SELL Yes 61¢ $390 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 9? SELL Yes 61¢ $56 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 62¢ $127 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 62¢ $43 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 63¢ $87 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 63¢ $58 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 63¢ $35 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 694 history records