Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:48:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9dc8…7b89 crypto 427 markets active 2h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$885 (-8%) realized −$876 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate53%225W / 199L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day18.7pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$41
7 days−$106
14 days−$198
30 days−$449
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% −$357
sports 23% −$264
weather 22% −$189
world 11% −$242
other 1% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -11.7% -20.1% 60% 43% -19.1%
≤30d 152 -7.1% -16.0% 52% 45% -17.7%
≤90d 424 -13.6% -21.8% 53% 38% -17.5%
all 424 -13.6% -21.8% 53% 38% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 38% -17.5%
10% -29.3% 27% -25.4%
15% -36.1% 20% -32.6%
20% -42.4% 16% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$13 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$876
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses225 / 199
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions3
Markets (closed)424 / 427
History coverage55d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day18.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 424 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 27? No 84¢ 80¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 26? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 26? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 117 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 26? Jun 26 $50 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 26? Jun 26 $2 −$1 -70%
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 26? Jun 26 $61 −$56 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C or below on June 27? Jun 26 $10 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$1 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 25? Jun 25 $51 +$13 +26%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 25? Jun 25 $31 +$5 +17%
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 24? Jun 24 $10 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 23? Jun 23 $91 +$17 +19%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 23? Jun 23 $70 +$23 +32%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $50 +$12 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 22? Jun 21 $21 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 22? Jun 21 $71 −$70 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 21? Jun 21 $34 −$34 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 21? Jun 21 $21 −$10 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 21? Jun 21 $20 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 21? Jun 21 $10 +$13 +127%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $46 −$46 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $101 +$10 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20? Jun 20 $32 +$23 +74%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 +$9 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 21? Jun 20 $101 −$2 -2%
Rainbow Six Siege: Dplus vs KINOTROPE gaming (BO1) - Asia Pacific Leag Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $16 −$2 -15%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO5) - The International South America Jun 20 $15 +$6 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 19? Jun 19 $15 +$2 +13%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $20 +$7 +32%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - European Pro League Playof Jun 19 $20 +$7 +36%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $15 +$9 +62%
Dota 2: Hive vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 18 $34 +$7 +20%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $30 +$24 +79%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $41 +$27 +66%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +49%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $50 +$17 +34%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $51 +$19 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? Jun 14 $16 −$15 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $40 +$5 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $31 +$39 +127%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $51 −$12 -23%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 14 $61 −$40 -66%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 14 $21 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 27? BUY No 84¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 26? SELL No 99¢ $52 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 26? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 26? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 26? BUY No 96¢ $50 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 26? SELL No 5¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C or below on June 27? SELL No 25¢ $8 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 26? BUY No 57¢ $41 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C or below on June 27? BUY No 32¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C or below on June 27? BUY No 31¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 26? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 26? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 26h
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 26? BUY No 75¢ $20 26h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $64 27h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 25? SELL No 98¢ $26 28h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 25? BUY No 76¢ $10 30h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 25? BUY No 75¢ $10 30h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 25? SELL Yes 23¢ $10 30h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 25? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 24? SELL No 98¢ $12 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 25? BUY No 78¢ $51 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 24? BUY No 58¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 24? BUY No 85¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 23? SELL No 99¢ $108 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 23? BUY No 83¢ $91 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 23? SELL No 97¢ $93 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 23? BUY No 72¢ $70 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.96 · official $47.96 (match) · 1205 history records