Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:10:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9dca…032f other 113 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate11%12W / 101L
Whale WR7%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$276per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$14
politics 30% −$11
sports 13% +$13
tech 3% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
economics 3% −$1
culture 2% −$1
world 2% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 9 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 83 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 113 -0.3% -9.8% 11% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 5% -9.6%
10% -18.4% 4% -18.2%
15% -26.3% 4% -26.1%
20% -33.5% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 7% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×6.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses12 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)7%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)113 / 113
History coverage132d
Avg bet$276
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 113 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $26 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 20 $40 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $22 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $37 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $220 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $192 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $188 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $249 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $216 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 20 $225 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $219 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $229 $0 -0%
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 17 $243 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $259 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $54 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $232 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $182 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $433 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 12 $229 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $235 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $245 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $209 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $239 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 05 $16 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? May 05 $60 $0 +0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $221 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $507 −$1 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $301 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $271 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $268 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $1,084 −$1 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 17 $254 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $236 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $294 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $304 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $233 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $212 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $306 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $297 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $236 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $209 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $229 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $522 −$1 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 10 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 08 $223 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $241 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 08 $287 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $303 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 07 $247 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $26 1h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $26 29h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $40 29h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $40 6d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $22 6d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 7d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $37 21d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $37 22d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $220 24d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $220 24d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $192 24d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $192 24d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 26d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $188 27d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $249 27d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $249 28d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $204 28d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $204 28d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $216 30d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $216 31d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $225 31d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $225 31d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $219 32d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $219 33d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $229 33d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $229 35d
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $243 35d
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $243 35d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $259 35d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $259 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 316 history records