Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:09:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

9D 0x9dca…92ad crypto 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$8 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip

Net edge-49%after slip

Net WR29%break-even

Win rate29%7W / 17L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$24per market

Trades / day4.3pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit64%portable

Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$24

7 days+$40

14 days+$0

30 days+$0

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +29%

net ROI/market (all)-47.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	-30.0%	-36.7%	35%	35%	-2.5%
≤30d	24	-41.7%	-47.2%	29%	29%	-9.5%
≤90d	24	-41.7%	-47.2%	29%	29%	-9.5%
all	24	-41.7%	-47.2%	29%	29%	-9.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.3 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-47.2%	29%	-9.5%
10%	-52.3%	21%	-18.1%
15%	-56.9%	21%	-26.1%
20%	-61.1%	12%	-33.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 41% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -42% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -56% → late -27% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$23 vs −$10 · ×2.43 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.0 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage

Net worth$48

Realized+$8

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)29%

Wins / losses7 / 17

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)24 / 25

History coverage12d

Avg bet$24

Trades / day4.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 24 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	41¢	40¢	$49	$48	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Jun 24	$3	+$7	+288%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Jun 24	$1	−$1	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Jun 24	$10	−$10	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Jun 24	$2	−$2	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Jun 24	$14	−$14	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Jun 24	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Jun 24	$24	−$13	-53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Jun 24	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Jun 24	$4	−$4	-100%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia?	Jun 23	$12	−$6	-47%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana?	Jun 23	$22	+$28	+132%
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime?	Jun 23	$15	+$8	+57%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals	Jun 22	$12	+$3	+21%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$146	+$67	+46%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$30	−$30	-100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$99	+$12	+12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Jun 21	$10	−$10	-100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5	Jun 21	$13	−$13	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Jun 21	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$87	+$38	+43%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$20	−$20	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Jun 15	$4	−$4	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	41¢	$50	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	BUY Up	41¢	$10	12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$10	12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	BUY Down	5¢	$0	12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	BUY Up	20¢	$2	12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	BUY Down	10¢	$1	12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	BUY Down	64¢	$13	12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	BUY Up	13¢	$1	12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	BUY Up	13¢	$2	12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	BUY Up	13¢	$0	12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	BUY Up	13¢	$1	12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	BUY Down	16¢	$5	12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	BUY Down	34¢	$2	12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	BUY Down	59¢	$9	12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	SELL Up	44¢	$11	12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$13	12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	BUY Down	8¢	$2	13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	BUY Down	8¢	$1	13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	BUY Down	3¢	$1	13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	BUY Down	15¢	$1	13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	BUY Down	15¢	$1	13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	BUY Down	23¢	$3	13h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia?	SELL Yes	6¢	$1	13h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia?	SELL Yes	6¢	$5	13h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia?	BUY Yes	11¢	$12	13h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana?	SELL Yes	100¢	$50	15h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana?	BUY Yes	43¢	$22	15h
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime?	SELL Yes	100¢	$23	15h
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime?	BUY Yes	63¢	$15	16h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals	SELL Yes	47¢	$15	39h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.38 · official $48.38 (match) · 70 history records