Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:20:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
9D 0x9dcb…d5e1 crypto 61 markets active 0h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate72%44W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$192
7 days−$114
14 days−$116
30 days−$116
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$129
other 17% +$1
sports 10% −$21
culture 1% +$20
finance 1% +$6
weather 0% −$2
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +4.2% -5.7% 78% 51% -13.2%
≤30d 51 +2.5% -7.3% 76% 51% -13.3%
≤90d 51 +2.5% -7.3% 76% 51% -13.3%
all 61 -0.6% -10.0% 72% 51% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 51% -13.6%
10% -18.6% 31% -21.8%
15% -26.5% 23% -29.4%
20% -33.7% 16% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$29 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses44 / 17
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)61 / 61
History coverage101d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 61 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 19 $29 −$14 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $126 −$126 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 19 $81 +$9 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $126 +$17 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 19 $131 +$10 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 19 $131 +$20 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $76 +$15 +20%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$3 +26%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 18 $81 +$20 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $50 +$5 +9%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $80 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 18 $203 −$134 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $50 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P Jun 18 $197 +$15 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 18 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $131 +$13 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$14 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 18 $51 +$31 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 18 $101 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +6%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $123 +$16 +13%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $60 +$10 +17%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $70 +$19 +26%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$3 +8%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +180%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$5 +101%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +52%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +109%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $30 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 164 history records