Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:43:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

9D 0x9dcd…2a32 other 6 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$60 (+12%) realized +$61 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip

Net edge+12%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate100%4W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$82per market

Trades / day1.6pace

Kalshi-fit17%portable

Net worth$139now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+12.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+23.8%	+12.0%	100%	50%	+8.0%
≤30d	4	+23.8%	+12.0%	100%	50%	+8.0%
≤90d	4	+23.8%	+12.0%	100%	50%	+8.0%
all	4	+23.8%	+12.0%	100%	50%	+8.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.6 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+12.0%	50%	+8.0%
10%	+1.3%	50%	-2.3%
15%	-8.5%	25%	-11.8%
20%	-17.5%	25%	-20.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 40% · top 2 74% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +19% too few recent

Fragile wins

50% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +24% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$17 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$139

Realized+$61

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses4 / 0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)4 / 6

History coverage5d

Avg bet$82

Trades / day1.6

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	91¢	90¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	70¢	69¢	$40	$40	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$100	+$9	+9%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$100	+$8	+8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$51	+$28	+55%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$101	+$23	+23%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	91¢	$100	7m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	100¢	$110	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$40	1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	91¢	$100	1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	92¢	$100	23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	64¢	$51	4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$123	4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	81¢	$101	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.16 · official $139.16 (match) · 10 history records