Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:39:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9dcf…d88b crypto 178 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$78 (+1%) realized +$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate76%135W / 43L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$5
14 days+$76
30 days+$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.8% -8.8% 90% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 62 +0.1% -9.4% 81% 6% -8.3%
≤90d 174 -0.6% -10.1% 76% 4% -9.1%
all 178 -0.5% -10.0% 76% 4% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 4% -9.1%
10% -18.6% 0% -17.8%
15% -26.5% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$10 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses135 / 43
Open positions0
Markets (closed)178 / 178
History coverage91d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 178 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $276 +$8 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $270 +$8 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $261 +$9 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $254 +$7 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $352 −$99 -28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $340 +$10 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $329 +$13 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $312 +$17 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $301 +$11 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $280 +$21 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $266 +$14 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $254 +$10 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $241 +$14 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $234 +$9 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $95 +$4 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 8? Jun 08 $124 +$10 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $81 +$8 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $203 −$6 -3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? Jun 07 $20 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $168 +$17 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 6? Jun 06 $191 +$7 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 6? Jun 06 $184 +$7 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $194 −$10 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $145 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $50 +$4 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $81 −$12 -15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $39 −$1 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $90 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $48 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 5? Jun 05 $197 +$5 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $88 +$16 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $76 +$10 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $9 +$1 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $114 −$32 -28%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 4? Jun 04 $99 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $13 +$2 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $91 +$8 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 03 $84 −$22 -26%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 3? Jun 03 $69 +$2 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 3? Jun 03 $85 −$21 -24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $6 −$1 -21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $85 +$6 +8%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $96 −$11 -12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $89 +$7 +8%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 2? Jun 02 $83 +$6 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $81 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $78 +$3 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 29? May 29 $75 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 28? May 28 $72 +$4 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $285 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $276 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $4 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $22 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $37 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $94 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $121 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $270 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $270 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $261 40h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 99¢ $261 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 96¢ $254 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? SELL No 68¢ $253 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY No 92¢ $352 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $350 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $274 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $67 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $342 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 95¢ $329 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $329 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 12? BUY No 94¢ $312 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $311 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? BUY No 96¢ $213 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? BUY No 96¢ $1 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? BUY No 96¢ $87 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? SELL Yes 99¢ $301 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 92¢ $280 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? SELL Yes 99¢ $280 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 94¢ $79 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 94¢ $94 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 639 history records