Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:09:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
9D 0x9dd1…ec0e crypto 226 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5,449 (-11%) realized −$5,514 · open +$65
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%86W / 135L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$224per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$608now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,874
7 days−$2,874
14 days−$2,874
30 days−$2,874
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$5,582
other 27% +$214
sports 18% $0
world 1% −$335
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +116.3% +95.7% 40% 40% -56.9%
≤30d 5 +116.3% +95.7% 40% 40% -56.9%
≤90d 5 +116.3% +95.7% 40% 40% -56.9%
all 221 -8.2% -16.9% 39% 37% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 37% -20.0%
10% -24.9% 32% -27.6%
15% -32.1% 29% -34.6%
20% -38.8% 27% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% too few recent
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +16% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$218 vs −$181 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$608
Realized−$5,514
Unrealized+$65
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses86 / 135
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions4
Markets (closed)221 / 226
History coverage136d
Avg bet$224
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 221 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 22¢ $243 $311 +$68 (+28%)
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals Yes 28¢ 29¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 40¢ 38¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Atalanta BC vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund end in a draw? Jun 26 $191 −$191 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-27? Jun 26 $5,102 −$3,541 -69%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $90 +$103 +114%
Spread: Senegal (-4.5) Jun 26 $103 +$757 +737%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-02-26? Feb 26 $500 +$346 +69%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-02-26? Feb 26 $500 +$169 +34%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-25? Feb 25 $1,977 +$1,227 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Feb 24 $227 −$227 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Feb 24 $478 −$478 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Feb 24 $380 +$325 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Feb 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Feb 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Feb 24 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Feb 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Feb 24 $86 −$86 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Feb 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Feb 24 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Feb 24 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Feb 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Feb 24 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Feb 24 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Feb 24 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Feb 24 $340 +$142 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Feb 24 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Feb 24 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Feb 24 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Feb 24 $250 −$250 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Feb 24 $400 −$121 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Feb 24 $295 −$295 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Feb 24 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Feb 24 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Feb 24 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Feb 24 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Feb 24 $500 −$74 -15%
Will Bologna FC 1909 vs. Udinese Calcio end in a draw? Feb 24 $469 −$197 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Feb 24 $350 −$350 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Feb 24 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-02-23? Feb 24 $230 −$230 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Feb 24 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Feb 24 $350 −$350 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Feb 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Everton FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? Feb 24 $300 −$252 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Feb 24 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Feb 24 $317 −$317 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Feb 24 $450 −$450 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Feb 24 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Feb 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Feb 24 $372 −$372 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Feb 24 $200 −$200 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $102 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND BUY 25¢ $100 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 1h
Spread: Senegal (-4.5) SELL Senegal 96¢ $859 2h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 46¢ $90 4h
Spread: Senegal (-4.5) BUY Senegal 11¢ $103 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 10d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $249 11d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $709 120d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $18 120d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $535 120d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $252 120d
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-02-26? SELL Yes 88¢ $846 120d
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-02-26? SELL Yes 91¢ $669 120d
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-02-26? BUY Yes 68¢ $500 120d
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-02-26? BUY Yes 52¢ $500 120d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-27? SELL Yes 51¢ $1,000 120d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $3,012 121d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,012 121d
Will Atalanta BC vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $191 121d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-25? SELL Yes 57¢ $191 121d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-25? BUY Yes 59¢ $1,977 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $227 122d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $478 122d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $705 122d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $380 122d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $208 122d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $500 122d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $200 122d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $607.59 · official $705.38 · 624 history records