Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:18:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9D 0x9dd2…1c75 crypto 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$151 (+7%) realized +$151 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate55%46W / 37L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$164
7 days+$277
14 days+$277
30 days+$277
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% +$183
other 8% +$26
sports 6% +$122
world 5% −$54
tech 2% +$8
culture 2% +$3
economics 1% −$4
finance 1% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +51.6% +37.2% 67% 67% +61.5%
≤30d 6 +51.6% +37.2% 67% 67% +61.5%
≤90d 20 +0.8% -8.8% 45% 45% +12.4%
all 83 +0.1% -9.4% 55% 40% +2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 40% +2.5%
10% -18.1% 33% -7.3%
15% -26.0% 25% -16.2%
20% -33.3% 19% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$13 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$151
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses46 / 37
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)83 / 83
History coverage127d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 83 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$55 +268%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $103 +$87 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 18 $103 +$42 +41%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $102 +$118 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 28 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 28 $52 +$49 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Apr 28 $31 −$12 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Apr 27 $27 +$24 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Apr 27 $50 +$18 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Apr 27 $75 −$46 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Apr 27 $30 +$26 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Apr 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by March 31, 2026? Apr 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Apr 27 $20 −$16 -79%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? Apr 27 $7 −$1 -11%
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Apr 27 $5 −$2 -41%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Apr 27 $30 +$9 +32%
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Mar 04 $5 $0 -0%
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? Mar 04 $15 $0 +2%
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Rese Mar 04 $18 −$4 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Mar 02 $60 +$55 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Mar 02 $22 −$18 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Mar 01 $30 +$33 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Mar 01 $20 −$18 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Mar 01 $20 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Feb 28 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Feb 28 $46 +$61 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Feb 28 $30 −$28 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Feb 28 $30 +$17 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Feb 28 $106 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Feb 28 $30 −$29 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Feb 28 $46 −$45 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Feb 28 $10 +$6 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Feb 28 $50 +$9 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Feb 28 $15 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Feb 28 $66 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Feb 28 $59 +$36 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Feb 28 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Feb 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Feb 28 $20 +$9 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Feb 28 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Feb 28 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Feb 28 $40 −$23 -58%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)? Feb 28 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Feb 28 $50 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Feb 28 $30 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Feb 28 $50 +$17 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 98¢ $75 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $190 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $145 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $103 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 2h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $220 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $102 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $102 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $101 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $52 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $19 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $31 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $68 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $50 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $51 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $27 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $29 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $75 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $56 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $30 51d
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? SELL No 82¢ $6 51d
OpenAI IPO before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $3 51d
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $5 105d
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? SELL Yes 86¢ $10 105d
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Rese SELL Yes 54¢ $14 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $115 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $60 107d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 225 history records