Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:42:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9dd3…4054 sports 223 markets active 5d ago coverage 607d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$143 (-12%) realized −$143 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate63%140W / 81L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$11
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 33% −$35
other 32% −$77
politics 14% +$14
crypto 9% −$43
tech 5% −$1
world 4% −$3
culture 1% +$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -82.3% -84.0% 17% 0% -56.3%
≤30d 29 -50.9% -55.6% 38% 24% -21.5%
≤90d 49 -53.8% -58.2% 37% 18% -14.3%
all 221 -18.1% -25.9% 63% 33% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.9% 33% -20.2%
10% -33.0% 21% -27.8%
15% -39.5% 16% -34.8%
20% -45.4% 12% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

607d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$143
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses140 / 81
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)221 / 223
History coverage607d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 221 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 91¢ 88¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 57 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -97%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 03 $3 +$1 +42%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 03 $5 +$2 +44%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 03 $5 +$4 +73%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 02 $5 +$5 +97%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Clement Tabur May 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Burundi win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $0 $0 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 26 $3 −$3 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 25? May 26 $3 +$1 +36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 24? May 26 $6 +$1 +13%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 26 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 25? May 24 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? May 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 24? May 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 24 $1 $0 +11%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $212 Week of May 11 2026? May 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of May 11 above $215? May 24 $10 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of May 11 above $240? May 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of May 4 2026? May 08 $0 $0 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 Week of May 4 2026? May 08 $0 $0 -100%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $165 Week of May 4 2 May 08 $0 $0 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $135 Week of May 4 2026? May 07 $0 $0 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 06 $10 +$2 +18%
New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies May 04 $0 $0 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins May 04 $34 $0 -0%
Madrid Open: Laura Siegemund vs Jasmine Paolini Apr 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 23 $10 $0 +2%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago White Sox Apr 18 $35 $0 +0%
Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Apr 16 $35 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 07 $38 +$1 +3%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 27 $1 $0 +14%
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of March 16 above $235? Mar 27 $25 $0 +0%
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of March 9 above $245? Mar 20 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06- BUY 32¢ $3 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 5d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY No $1 9d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $0 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? BUY Yes $0 15d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $0 15d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $0 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? BUY No $1 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 15d
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 70¢ $3 15d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $5 15d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Baltimore Orioles 69¢ $5 15d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 15d
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Clement Tabur BUY Clement Tabur $0 22d
Will Burundi win on 2026-05-26? BUY Yes $0 23d
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 50¢ $5 23d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Tampa Bay Rays 52¢ $3 23d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers $0 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? BUY Yes $1 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 25? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 25? BUY Yes 72¢ $3 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 24? BUY Yes 88¢ $6 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.81 · official $7.81 · 415 history records