Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:25:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
9D 0x9dd3…b441 weather 590 markets active 2h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$278 (-3%) realized −$288 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate90%489W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day14.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$630now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days−$2
14 days+$12
30 days−$126
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% −$143
sports 1% −$100
other 1% −$31
tech 0% −$10
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 200 -0.1% -9.7% 93% 12% -9.6%
≤30d 474 -1.2% -10.6% 94% 6% -10.7%
≤90d 542 -4.1% -13.2% 90% 8% -12.2%
all 542 -4.1% -13.2% 90% 8% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 8% -12.2%
10% -21.5% 3% -20.6%
15% -29.1% 1% -28.2%
20% -36.1% 1% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$12 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$630
Realized−$288
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses489 / 53
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions48
Markets (closed)542 / 590
History coverage53d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day14.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 48 History 542 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 20? No 96¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 20? No 97¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 21? No 97¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 21? No 97¢ 98¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 21? No 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 20? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 21? No 97¢ 98¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 21? No 97¢ 98¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 21? No 95¢ 96¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on June 21? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 21? No 98¢ 97¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 21? No 94¢ 94¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 21? No 99¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 21? No 99¢ 97¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 20? No 92¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on June 20? No 93¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 20? No 93¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 20? No 90¢ 96¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 20? No 95¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 20? No 96¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 20? No 96¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 20? No 96¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 20? No 96¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 20? No 96¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 20? No 96¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 19? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 19? Jun 20 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju Jun 20 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 19? Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 19? Jun 20 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 19? Jun 20 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 19? Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 19? Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 −$3 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $16 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $4 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $4 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $15 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 21? BUY No 94¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 21? BUY No 97¢ $20 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 21? BUY No 95¢ $20 3h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $20 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 21? BUY No 97¢ $20 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 21? BUY No 97¢ $20 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $20 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $20 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 21? BUY No 97¢ $20 3h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 97¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 90¢ $10 15h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 20? BUY No 92¢ $10 15h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $10 17h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $10 18h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 93¢ $10 18h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 20? BUY No 96¢ $10 18h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $10 18h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 19? SELL No 70¢ $7 18h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $10 19h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $10 19h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $10 19h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 20? BUY No 96¢ $10 22h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 20? BUY No 96¢ $10 22h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $10 24h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $10 24h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 20? BUY No 96¢ $10 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $10 24h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $10 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $630.50 · official $630.71 (match) · 1236 history records