Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:14:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9D 0x9dd3…4ee8 politics 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 180d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$168 (-15%) realized −$167 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$137
7 days+$137
14 days+$137
30 days+$137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 66% −$267
sports 19% +$137
other 11% −$1
crypto 4% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-37.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +67.6% +51.7% 100% 100% +51.7%
≤30d 1 +67.6% +51.7% 100% 100% +51.7%
≤90d 1 +67.6% +51.7% 100% 100% +51.7%
all 6 -31.0% -37.6% 33% 33% -25.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.6% 33% -25.5%
10% -43.6% 33% -32.6%
15% -49.0% 17% -39.1%
20% -54.0% 17% -45.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +68% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$94 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized−$167
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage180d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $120 $119 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $202 +$137 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Dec 27 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on Dec Dec 27 $82 −$42 -51%
Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on Dec Dec 24 $242 −$89 -37%
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22? Dec 22 $196 +$67 +34%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 20 $203 −$203 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $122 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 61¢ $101 26h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 57¢ $101 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $40 172d
Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on Dec SELL Yes 21¢ $40 172d
Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on Dec BUY Yes 43¢ $82 175d
Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on Dec SELL No 96¢ $82 175d
Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on Dec BUY No 84¢ $72 175d
Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on Dec SELL Yes 16¢ $70 175d
Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on Dec BUY Yes 46¢ $70 176d
Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on Dec BUY Yes 35¢ $100 176d
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22? SELL Yes 66¢ $171 177d
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22? BUY Yes 37¢ $96 177d
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22? SELL No 64¢ $92 177d
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22? BUY No 69¢ $100 178d
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? BUY No 0¢ $30 179d
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? BUY No 1¢ $3 180d
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? BUY No 13¢ $70 180d
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? BUY No 10¢ $100 180d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.87 · official $118.87 (match) · 20 history records