Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T12:57:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9dd6…a352 other 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%1W / 26L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$323per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$8
politics 16% −$2
world 14% −$1
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 27 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 27 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$712) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses1 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage88d
Avg bet$323
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 29 $61 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 29 $1,229 −$1 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 29 $1,165 −$2 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 29 $1,179 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? May 19 $102 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 19 $21 $0 -0%
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom May 19 $28 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $33 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? May 16 $33 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $738 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth enter Iran by June 30? May 15 $29 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $697 −$1 -0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country? May 14 $8 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 14 $780 −$1 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 14 $665 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $54 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 13 $722 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? May 13 $31 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 13 $712 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 06 $104 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 06 $47 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $21 $0 -0%
Will Databricks have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Apr 02 $85 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 02 $48 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $26 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $61 1h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,228 1h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 1h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,206 1h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 1h
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,163 2h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 2h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 2h
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,153 2h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $926 2h
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $12 2h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $251 2h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $1,179 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $102 40d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $77 40d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $21 40d
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom SELL No 99¢ $14 40d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $21 40d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $25 40d
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom SELL No 99¢ $14 40d
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom BUY No 99¢ $28 40d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $33 44d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $20 44d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 44d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $12 44d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $33 44d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $50 45d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $738 45d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $11 45d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $716 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 78 history records