Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:56:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9D
0x9dd7…ef87
politics · 81 markets active 3h ago
3.0score
+$134 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$110 · open +$10
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$283
Realized+$110
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses60 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)75 / 81
History coverage221d
Avg bet$325
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit68%
Chart Positions 6 History 75 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $244 $248 +$5 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $6 $9 +$2 (+36%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $5 $9 +$3 (+65%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 17¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+13%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -15%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 14 $669 +$9 +1%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Apr 17 $236 +$7 +3%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Apr 08 $616 +$7 +1%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 02 $3,117 +$20 +1%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 23, 2026 (ET)? Feb 16 $2 $0 +11%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 26, 2026 (ET)? Feb 16 $4 +$5 +123%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 25, 2026 (ET)? Feb 15 $3 +$3 +100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 24, 2026 (ET)? Feb 14 $10 +$11 +110%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 18, 2026 (ET)? Feb 12 $2 $0 +12%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 19, 2026 (ET)? Feb 11 $2 $0 +12%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 15, 2026 (ET)? Feb 11 $2 $0 +14%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)? Feb 10 $2 +$3 +112%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 10 $3,879 +$4 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 16, 2026 (ET)? Feb 09 $2 +$3 +138%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 05 $2,236 +$2 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 30, 2026 (ET)? Jan 18 $1 +$1 +70%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 07 $1,934 +$2 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 06 $166 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 06 $2,098 +$2 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 04 $625 −$7 -1%
Will no US x Venezuela military engagement occur in 2025? Jan 01 $51 +$16 +31%
U.S. strike on Nigeria by December 31, 2025? Dec 29 $17 +$2 +9%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 28 $622 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 21 $195 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 19 $1,194 +$2 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 18 $818 +$1 +0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Dec 18 $546 +$1 +0%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 22? Dec 17 $1 +$2 +134%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 16 $1,475 +$3 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 15 $465 +$1 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 14 $98 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 10 $620 +$1 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 10? Dec 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 09 $195 $0 +0%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 5? Dec 06 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Dec 04 $84 $0 +0%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 13? Dec 03 $1 +$1 +122%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 2? Dec 03 $19 +$1 +6%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 02 $190 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Dec 01 $147 $0 +0%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? Dec 01 $22 +$8 +39%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 25? Nov 26 $10 $0 +4%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 24? Nov 25 $9 +$1 +8%
U.S. agrees to give Saudi Arabia security guarantee by November 30? Nov 24 $49 +$1 +1%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 23? Nov 24 $10 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 23 $99 $0 -0%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 21? Nov 22 $59 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 72% +$15
world 20% +$60
other 7% +$42
crypto 1% +$3
economics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 2h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $244 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $247 29d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $242 34d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $246 40d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $243 54d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $131 56d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $19 56d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $93 56d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 58d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 58d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 58d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $236 63d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $22 65d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $108 65d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $105 66d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $232 77d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $231 85d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $228 92d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 90¢ $216 93d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 89¢ $214 95d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 90¢ $215 95d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 89¢ $213 97d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $209 98d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $205 101d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $216 101d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $214 101d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 112d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 23, 2026 (ET)? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 115d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 26, 2026 (ET)? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 115d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -15.4% -23.4% 0% 0% -23.4%
≤30d 2 -7.0% -15.9% 50% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 5 -22.0% -29.4% 60% 0% -8.5%
all 75 +10.1% -0.4% 80% 19% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.4% 19% -9.1%
10% -9.9% 13% -17.8%
15% -18.6% 12% -25.8%
20% -26.6% 11% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $282.77 · official $282.83 (match) · 1212 history records