Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:21:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9dde…d725 other 90 markets active 2h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$499 (-4%) realized −$573 · open +$74
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate49%30W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$2,346now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$127
7 days+$169
14 days−$1,454
30 days−$855
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 27% +$1,377
tech 24% −$2,387
other 22% −$550
finance 10% +$423
sports 8% +$975
crypto 7% −$765
politics 1% −$70
economics 1% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +35.6% +22.7% 75% 75% +45.9%
≤30d 36 +13.7% +2.8% 39% 33% -17.7%
≤90d 61 +8.5% -1.9% 49% 38% -17.5%
all 61 +8.5% -1.9% 49% 38% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 38% -17.5%
10% -11.2% 33% -25.4%
15% -19.8% 28% -32.6%
20% -27.7% 21% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$99 vs −$130 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$2,346
Realized−$573
Unrealized+$74
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses30 / 31
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions29
Markets (closed)61 / 90
History coverage71d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? No 43¢ 99¢ $233 $541 +$309 (+132%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $483 $485 +$1 (+0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $199 $180 −$19 (-10%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 39¢ 26¢ $218 $144 −$74 (-34%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $102 $141 +$39 (+38%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $108 $126 +$17 (+16%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $123 $107 −$16 (-13%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $128 $92 −$36 (-28%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $78 $76 −$1 (-2%)
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $90 $69 −$20 (-23%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $70 $48 −$22 (-32%)
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? Yes 36¢ 14¢ $85 $33 −$52 (-61%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 30¢ 16¢ $59 $32 −$28 (-47%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $29 $28 −$0 (-2%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 20¢ 10¢ $59 $28 −$31 (-53%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+4%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 2¢ 17¢ $2 $22 +$19 (+822%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $18 $20 +$1 (+7%)
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 31, 2026? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $17 $14 −$3 (-17%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 6¢ $8 $14 +$5 (+63%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $18 $8 −$10 (-58%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Jun 22 $40 +$29 +72%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $130 +$99 +76%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 16 $75 +$71 +95%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $760 −$30 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $187 +$282 +151%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 15 $9 +$8 +93%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? Jun 15 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 4? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3? Jun 15 $54 −$54 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 24? Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.4T and $1.6T at market close on Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on Jun 15 $38 −$38 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 15 $48 −$48 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 15 $133 −$133 -100%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $2,105 −$2,105 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 15 $185 +$135 +73%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $729 +$187 +26%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? Jun 14 $409 −$280 -68%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $38 +$7 +19%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 11 $339 −$10 -3%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO Jun 09 $107 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 08 $318 +$545 +172%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $7 +$116 +1593%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $452 −$452 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $195 −$195 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 01 $112 +$4 +4%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $987 +$975 +99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 29 $234 +$178 +76%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? May 25 $23 −$20 -83%
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026? May 24 $11 −$7 -69%
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? May 19 $113 +$27 +24%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? May 19 $20 −$9 -46%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? May 18 $226 +$3 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 18 $116 +$58 +50%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 14 $93 +$102 +110%
James Comey arrested by April 29? May 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? May 05 $303 −$174 -57%
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? May 05 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? May 04 $149 −$149 -100%
Spirit Airlines shutdown/liquidation by May 31? May 03 $60 −$60 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 02 $347 +$24 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 01 $12 +$37 +305%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? Apr 29 $59 +$2 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL No 44¢ $25 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL No 44¢ $21 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $49 23h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $23 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $91 35h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 35h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 38¢ $4 35h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $99 38h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 39h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $28 39h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $42 39h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $229 39h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 54¢ $130 2d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 3¢ $30 2d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 2d
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $19 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $76 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $211 2d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $19 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $33 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $38 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $26 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $76 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL No 16¢ $15 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL No 17¢ $7 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 2¢ $2 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL Yes 100¢ $137 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 28¢ $34 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $214 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,346.45 · official $2,346.45 (match) · 611 history records