Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:57:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9ddf…2077 other 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$75 (-5%) realized −$80 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%17W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$180now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$81
7 days−$85
14 days−$279
30 days−$168
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$73
sports 16% −$99
crypto 3% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -14.6% -22.8% 48% 48% -19.2%
≤30d 39 +5.9% -4.2% 44% 44% -22.3%
≤90d 39 +5.9% -4.2% 44% 44% -22.3%
all 39 +5.9% -4.2% 44% 44% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 44% -22.3%
10% -13.3% 44% -29.8%
15% -21.7% 41% -36.6%
20% -29.4% 26% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$24 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$180
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses17 / 22
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions5
Markets (closed)39 / 44
History coverage22d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 75¢ 97¢ $50 $65 +$15 (+30%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 79¢ 64¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-20%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $52 +$15 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $21 +$25 +116%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$10 +49%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $53 +$23 +44%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $52 −$25 -48%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $26 +$33 +125%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $53 +$26 +49%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $26 +$14 +53%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $46 +$19 +40%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $24 +$14 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $29 +$17 +58%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $21 −$19 -87%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 19 $11 +$7 +61%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $107 −$36 -34%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $21 +$26 +121%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $53 −$4 -8%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: Bahrain (-1.5) Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 17 $42 −$24 -57%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Croatia vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $47 +$19 +39%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 +$8 +36%
Will Sweden vs. Greece end in a draw? Jun 04 $21 +$49 +231%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $5 +$47 +889%
Will Netherlands vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 03 $9 +$14 +166%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 79¢ $52 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $52 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $32 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $26 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $68 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $46 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $52 13h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $21 13h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 48¢ $27 25h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 31h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $52 31h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $53 31h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $21 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $26 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $53 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $52 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $65 4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $24 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $26 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $46 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $29 5d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $11 5d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $21 5d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 6d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $21 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $180.20 · official $180.20 (match) · 94 history records