Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:19:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9de2…2b16 crypto 41 markets active 6d ago coverage 379d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,639 (-6%) realized −$1,640 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate65%26W / 14L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$702per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% −$1,978
world 27% +$381
weather 26% +$5
politics 0% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +5.3% -4.8% 100% 0% -4.8%
≤90d 20 -4.3% -13.4% 60% 0% -7.5%
all 40 +1.1% -8.6% 65% 2% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 2% -14.7%
10% -17.3% 2% -22.9%
15% -25.3% 2% -30.3%
20% -32.6% 2% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$840) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$212 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

379d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$1,640
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses26 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage379d
Avg bet$702
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $54 $55 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $51 +$3 +5%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 15 $49 +$1 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 16 $7,514 +$376 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on April 15? Apr 15 $1,838 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 28°C or higher on April 1 Apr 15 $144 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C or higher on April 14? Apr 15 $147 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 14? Apr 15 $553 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on April 14? Apr 15 $123 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or higher on April 14? Apr 15 $840 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on April 14? Apr 15 $186 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C or higher on April 14 Apr 15 $40 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on April 14? Apr 15 $23 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on April 14? Apr 15 $381 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 52-53°F on April 14? Apr 14 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ap Apr 14 $97 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on April 14 Apr 14 $254 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on April 14? Apr 14 $260 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on April 14? Apr 14 $959 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or below on April 15? Apr 14 $1,500 +$1 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 14 $48 −$47 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on February 2 Feb 26 $48 $0 +0%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 24 $48 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in January? Jan 12 $86 −$86 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 12 $84 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 in November? Dec 15 $84 +$1 +1%
Will Solana dip to $100 in November? Nov 04 $89 −$6 -6%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in October? Oct 26 $88 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in September? Oct 16 $44 +$3 +6%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in August? Sep 02 $42 +$2 +4%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Aug 19 $40 +$2 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in July? Jul 15 $2,531 −$2,091 -83%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June? Jul 01 $2,453 +$79 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? Jun 24 $2,436 +$16 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in June? Jun 21 $2,407 +$30 +1%
Will Solana reach $190 in May? Jun 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 31 $2,264 +$43 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110K and $112K on May 30? May 30 $226 −$226 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112K and $114K on May 30? May 30 $117 −$117 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2500 on May 30? May 30 $400 −$400 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on May 30? May 30 $130 +$770 +592%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $54 6d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $51 33d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 98¢ $49 62d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $4,418 62d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $3,104 62d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $368 62d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $366 62d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $7,148 63d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on April 15? SELL No 100¢ $1 63d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 28°C or higher on April 1 SELL No 100¢ $144 63d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C or higher on April 14? SELL No 100¢ $147 63d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 14? SELL No 100¢ $553 63d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on April 14? SELL No 100¢ $123 63d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or higher on April 14? SELL No 100¢ $840 63d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on April 14? SELL No 100¢ $186 63d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C or higher on April 14 SELL No 100¢ $40 63d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on April 14? SELL No 100¢ $23 63d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on April 14? SELL No 100¢ $381 63d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on April 15? SELL No 100¢ $957 63d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on April 15? SELL No 100¢ $881 63d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on April 14? BUY No 100¢ $186 64d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C or higher on April 14 BUY No 100¢ $30 64d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or higher on April 14? BUY No 100¢ $741 64d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on April 14 BUY No 100¢ $6 64d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on April 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 64d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on April 14 BUY No 100¢ $5 64d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on April 14? BUY No 100¢ $86 64d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 14? BUY No 100¢ $15 64d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on April 14? BUY No 100¢ $4 64d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on April 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.51 · official $54.51 (match) · 152 history records