Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T12:27:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
9D 0x9dea…579d crypto 93 markets active 2h ago coverage 596d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$81 (-1%) realized −$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate71%65W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% −$19
crypto 47% +$6
sports 6% −$47
other 0% −$22
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 9 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 92 -0.3% -9.8% 71% 21% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 21% -10.1%
10% -18.4% 18% -18.7%
15% -26.3% 18% -26.6%
20% -33.5% 16% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$13 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

596d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses65 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)92 / 93
History coverage596d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 30? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 12? Jun 13 $51 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $51 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 07 $52 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on May 11? May 13 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 9? May 10 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 6? May 07 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 13? Apr 13 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 8? Apr 11 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 31? Apr 01 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 23? Mar 24 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 19? Mar 20 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on March 11? Mar 13 $148 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 9? Mar 10 $148 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on March 7? Mar 08 $145 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 3? Mar 06 $143 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on February 26? Mar 02 $146 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 14? Feb 16 $143 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 11? Feb 13 $144 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 7? Feb 07 $140 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on February 5? Feb 06 $141 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on February 3? Feb 04 $142 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on February 1? Feb 02 $142 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 30? Jan 30 $140 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 28? Jan 29 $140 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on January 24? Jan 25 $143 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on January 22? Jan 23 $140 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 16? Jan 17 $141 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on January 12? Jan 13 $141 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on January 1? Jan 05 $140 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on December 25? Dec 26 $141 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on December 18? Dec 18 $141 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on December 16? Dec 17 $138 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 11? Dec 12 $142 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 8? Dec 09 $139 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 4? Dec 05 $142 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 1? Dec 02 $139 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on November 22? Nov 24 $131 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on November 19? Nov 20 $127 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on November 17? Nov 17 $134 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 15? Nov 16 $132 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 14? Nov 15 $132 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on November 13? Nov 13 $133 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on November 11? Nov 12 $132 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on November 8? Nov 11 $137 $0 +0%
Ravens vs. Dolphins Oct 31 $14 −$14 -100%
James Madison vs. Texas State Oct 29 $29 +$12 +43%
Commanders vs. Chiefs Oct 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Vikings vs. Chargers Oct 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Buccaneers vs. Lions Oct 21 $28 +$12 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $51 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $51 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $51 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $52 24d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $103 50d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 9? BUY No 100¢ $104 52d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $104 55d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $102 77d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $104 82d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 31? BUY No 100¢ $103 91d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $102 96d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 23? BUY No 100¢ $103 99d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $103 102d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on March 11? BUY No 100¢ $148 110d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 9? BUY No 100¢ $148 112d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on March 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $145 114d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $143 118d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on February 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $146 123d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 14? BUY No 100¢ $143 135d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 11? BUY No 100¢ $144 138d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 7? BUY No 100¢ $140 142d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on February 5? BUY No 100¢ $141 144d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on February 3? BUY No 100¢ $142 146d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on February 1? BUY No 100¢ $142 148d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 30? BUY No 100¢ $140 150d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 28? BUY No 100¢ $140 152d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on January 24? BUY No 100¢ $143 156d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on January 22? BUY No 100¢ $140 158d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $141 164d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on January 12? BUY No 100¢ $141 169d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.24 · official $51.24 (match) · 210 history records