Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:42:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
9D 0x9deb…5460 other 143 markets active 1h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,508 (-1%) realized −$1,510 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate16%23W / 119L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$716per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$544now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$10
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$1,037
politics 32% −$42
sports 9% −$434
economics 4% −$5
world 2% $0
crypto 2% +$2
culture 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 59 -1.8% -11.2% 3% 0% -11.0%
all 142 -1.0% -10.5% 16% 10% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 10% -10.9%
10% -19.0% 10% -19.4%
15% -26.9% 7% -27.2%
20% -34.0% 6% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$923) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$15 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$544
Realized−$1,510
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses23 / 119
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)142 / 143
History coverage163d
Avg bet$716
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $543 $544 +$2 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $307 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 26 $1,173 −$1 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 26 $217 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 24 $218 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $412 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $438 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $223 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,826 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $896 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $3,278 −$4 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $2,819 −$3 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $1,716 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $783 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $665 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $780 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $908 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 03 $796 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $845 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $1,927 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $386 +$1 +0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $965 −$2 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $609 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,729 −$6 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $861 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $819 −$1 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 23 $810 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $811 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $696 −$1 -0%
Will Gillian Sherratt win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 22 $906 −$1 -0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in May? May 20 $446 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $794 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $911 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $866 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $646 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $1,719 −$2 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $875 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $576 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $1,858 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $2,463 −$2 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $1,417 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $850 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $852 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $841 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $948 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $1,526 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $2,020 −$2 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $848 −$1 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $860 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $821 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $739 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $306 1h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $307 5h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $232 6h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $232 9h
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $216 9h
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $217 12h
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $217 2d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $218 2d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $411 8d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $412 8d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $438 8d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $438 8d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $222 8d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $223 8d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $361 9d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $361 9d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $543 9d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $895 11d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $896 12d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $920 12d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $921 13d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $721 15d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $721 15d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $939 15d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $941 15d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $864 15d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $865 15d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $782 16d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $783 16d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $775 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $544.39 · official $544.39 (match) · 438 history records