trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 0% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤30d | 1 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 0% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤90d | 2 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 0% | 0% | -9.6% |
| all | 24 | +1.3% | -8.3% | 42% | 4% | -9.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -8.3% | 4% | -9.5% |
| 10% | -17.1% | 0% | -18.2% |
| 15% | -25.1% | 0% | -26.1% |
| 20% | -32.5% | 0% | -33.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $44 | $44 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | Jun 27 | $44 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | May 06 | $42 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Mar 21 | $16,170 | −$16 | -0% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m | Mar 21 | $216 | +$2 | +1% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | Mar 21 | $270 | +$6 | +2% |
| Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? | Mar 21 | $422 | $0 | +0% |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? | Jan 23 | $118 | +$7 | +6% |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? | Jan 23 | $253 | +$1 | +0% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | Dec 29 | $12 | $0 | +1% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem | Sep 30 | $13 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? | Sep 23 | $14 | +$2 | +11% |
| Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? | May 19 | $14 | +$1 | +6% |
| Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024? | Dec 27 | $16 | $0 | +2% |
| Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | Oct 05 | $264 | $0 | +0% |
| 2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R House | Oct 05 | $188 | $0 | +0% |
| GOP wins popular vote by 7% or more? | Oct 05 | $231 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Oct 03 | $273 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Ohio State win the 2025 College Football Playoff? | Oct 03 | $112 | $0 | +0% |
| Arsenal wins the Premier League? | Oct 02 | $146 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Vinicius Jr win the Ballon D’Or? | Oct 01 | $116 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Fed cut interest rates 2 times in 2024? | Oct 01 | $173 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? | Sep 30 | $215 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Tim Walz be D-nom for VP on Election Day? | Sep 29 | $192 | $0 | -0% |
| 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 215+ | Sep 27 | $90 | $0 | -0% |