Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:38:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
9D 0x9df3…ddfc other 453 markets active 2h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,998 (-1%) realized −$3,072 · open +$74
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate50%221W / 220L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$504per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Kalshi-fit5%portable
Net worth$4,634now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$307
7 days+$1,087
14 days−$544
30 days−$387
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% −$2,978
world 7% −$708
crypto 1% +$186
economics 0% −$275
sports 0% −$5
finance 0% −$140
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +7.8% -2.5% 69% 66% +0.1%
≤30d 53 -10.6% -19.1% 58% 55% -11.3%
≤90d 156 -11.5% -19.9% 56% 50% -10.8%
all 441 -16.2% -24.2% 50% 40% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.2% 40% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -31.4% 29% -19.5%
15% -38.1% 21% -27.3%
20% -44.1% 15% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$610) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -18% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$200 vs −$219 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$4,634
Realized−$3,072
Unrealized+$74
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses221 / 220
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Open positions12
Markets (closed)441 / 453
History coverage164d
Avg bet$504
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit5%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 441 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 84¢ 88¢ $1,000 $1,044 +$44 (+4%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 82¢ 84¢ $500 $515 +$15 (+3%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 80¢ 81¢ $500 $509 +$9 (+2%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $500 $497 −$3 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $500 $496 −$4 (-1%)
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 78¢ 96¢ $400 $495 +$95 (+24%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $400 $403 +$3 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Yes 57¢ 68¢ $100 $118 +$18 (+18%)
Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by December 31, 2026? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $110 $12 −$98 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $202 +$110 +55%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $309 −$28 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $305 −$30 -10%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $205 +$213 +104%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,003 +$96 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $706 +$147 +21%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $303 +$156 +52%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $104 −$100 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $204 +$57 +28%
Will White House post 140-159 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 21 $16 −$15 -95%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $303 −$300 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $202 +$106 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $203 +$142 +70%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $205 +$151 +74%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 20 $150 −$54 -36%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,003 +$120 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $203 +$148 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $202 +$126 +62%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $104 −$100 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $203 +$40 +20%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $403 +$117 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $202 +$115 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $304 −$300 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $203 +$148 +73%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $204 +$99 +48%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $303 +$120 +40%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $29 −$28 -96%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $705 −$700 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $303 +$120 +40%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $503 +$100 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $505 +$241 +48%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $410 +$67 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $1,314 +$351 +27%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,002 −$1,000 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $303 −$300 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $52 −$50 -96%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $407 −$400 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $525 +$125 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $304 +$121 +40%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $806 +$132 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $307 −$300 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $304 −$7 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1,005 +$98 +10%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $1,007 +$128 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $204 −$143 -70%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $304 +$57 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? Jun 08 $204 +$152 +74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $503 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $303 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 69¢ $505 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $202 2h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 78¢ $403 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $281 2h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $275 2h
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 2h
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $103 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $206 2h
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $419 2h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $102 13h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $305 19h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $706 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 20h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $503 22h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $503 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $1,003 22h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $104 23h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $260 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 39h
Will White House post 140-159 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $16 41h
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $205 41h
Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $53 46h
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $404 46h
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $104 46h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $1,005 47h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $204 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,633.93 · official $4,635.14 (match) · 1543 history records