Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:09:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9D 0x9df6…c33b sports 168 markets active 1h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$260 (-4%) realized −$260 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%85W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$40
14 days+$40
30 days−$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$47
other 12% −$353
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +20.2% +8.7% 67% 67% +2.2%
≤30d 19 -1.0% -10.4% 53% 53% -16.4%
≤90d 77 +6.8% -3.3% 58% 57% -4.6%
all 168 +3.8% -6.1% 51% 49% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 49% -13.7%
10% -15.1% 49% -21.9%
15% -23.3% 48% -29.5%
20% -30.8% 46% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$36 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$260
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses85 / 83
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions0
Markets (closed)168 / 168
History coverage105d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 168 Trades
no open positions (73 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $26 −$26 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $30 +$26 +86%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $74 +$56 +76%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $46 +$28 +62%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $90 −$89 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $46 +$44 +97%
CR Vasco da Gama vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 1.5 May 31 $79 −$78 -98%
EC Bahia vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 2.5 May 31 $46 +$34 +73%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $46 −$45 -98%
CA Peñarol vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: O/U 2.5 May 22 $33 −$32 -99%
CA Paranaense vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 1.5 May 18 $99 +$59 +60%
Lille OSC vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 1.5 May 17 $55 +$44 +81%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Girona FC: O/U 1.5 May 17 $55 −$54 -99%
1. FC Magdeburg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 1.5 May 17 $128 −$126 -99%
SE Palmeiras vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 2.5 May 17 $25 −$25 -98%
D.C. United SC vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 1.5 May 17 $51 +$47 +93%
Vålerenga Fotball vs. Sarpsborg 08 FF: O/U 4.5 May 16 $20 +$28 +139%
CF Montréal vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 2.5 May 16 $20 −$20 -99%
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 2.5 May 16 $46 +$52 +114%
Minnesota United FC vs. Colorado Rapids SC: O/U 1.5 May 14 $103 −$101 -99%
CF Montréal vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 4.5 May 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 2.5 May 11 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $14 −$14 -98%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $31 +$46 +152%
CA Mineiro vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 1.5 May 10 $32 +$19 +59%
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 2.5 May 10 $70 +$43 +62%
Hertha BSC vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 1.5 May 10 $46 +$23 +50%
CF Montréal vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 1.5 May 09 $61 +$35 +57%
Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 1.5 May 09 $101 +$65 +64%
Sevilla FC vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 1.5 May 09 $51 +$51 +101%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $26 −$23 -85%
Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5 May 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Mirassol FC vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: O/U 2.5 May 04 $34 +$32 +93%
Austin FC vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 1.5 May 03 $35 +$27 +76%
CR Flamengo vs. CR Vasco da Gama: O/U 2.5 May 03 $38 +$27 +70%
SC Freiburg vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 1.5 May 03 $30 +$20 +64%
Fortuna Sittard vs. Feyenoord Rotterdam: O/U 1.5 May 03 $30 +$23 +76%
Houston Dynamo vs. Colorado Rapids SC: O/U 1.5 May 03 $47 −$46 -98%
RCD Mallorca vs. Valencia CF: O/U 2.5 Apr 21 $47 −$46 -99%
Los Angeles FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 1.5 Apr 20 $50 +$40 +80%
CR Flamengo vs. EC Bahia: O/U 1.5 Apr 20 $50 +$38 +76%
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 1.5 Apr 19 $50 +$45 +89%
Vejle BK vs. FC København: O/U 2.5 Apr 19 $169 +$99 +59%
Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 19 $50 −$49 -99%
SC Internacional vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 19 $113 +$105 +93%
Cruzeiro EC vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 1.5 Apr 19 $71 +$42 +60%
Colorado Rapids SC vs. Inter Miami CF: Both Teams to Score Apr 18 $46 +$25 +53%
FC Lorient vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 2.5 Apr 18 $75 −$74 -99%
DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 1.5 Apr 18 $46 +$29 +62%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $72 −$71 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 60¢ $26 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $57 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 53¢ $30 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $74 4h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $46 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $90 31h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $90 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 50¢ $46 2d
CR Vasco da Gama vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $79 14d
EC Bahia vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $46 15d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 33¢ $46 15d
CA Peñarol vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $33 24d
CA Paranaense vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $99 28d
Lille OSC vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $99 28d
Lille OSC vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $55 28d
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Girona FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $55 28d
1. FC Magdeburg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $128 28d
SE Palmeiras vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $25 29d
D.C. United SC vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $98 29d
D.C. United SC vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 29d
Vålerenga Fotball vs. Sarpsborg 08 FF: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $49 29d
CF Montréal vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $20 29d
Vålerenga Fotball vs. Sarpsborg 08 FF: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 41¢ $20 29d
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $98 29d
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $46 29d
Minnesota United FC vs. Colorado Rapids SC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $103 32d
CF Montréal vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 50¢ $41 32d
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $21 34d
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-11? BUY Yes 25¢ $14 34d
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 39¢ $31 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 277 history records