Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:58:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9dfb…820a economics 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$18 (-4%) realized −$28 · open +$10
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$308now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 56% −$18
world 14% −$9
crypto 14% +$11
other 14% +$15
sports 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +25.8% +13.8% 50% 50% +14.8%
≤30d 2 +25.8% +13.8% 50% 50% +14.8%
≤90d 9 -11.7% -20.1% 33% 33% -22.6%
all 9 -11.7% -20.1% 33% 33% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 33% -22.6%
10% -27.7% 33% -30.0%
15% -34.7% 22% -36.8%
20% -41.1% 22% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$8 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$308
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)9 / 17
History coverage89d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 29¢ 55¢ $45 $85 +$40 (+90%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 62¢ 78¢ $53 $66 +$13 (+24%)
US recession by end of 2026? Yes 21¢ 12¢ $100 $54 −$46 (-46%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 66¢ 82¢ $30 $37 +$7 (+25%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 37¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Yes 21¢ 16¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$15 +152%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? May 12 $10 −$1 -13%
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? Apr 30 $15 −$5 -33%
Solana Up or Down - April 21, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Apr 21 $10 −$5 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 21 $5 +$3 +61%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $40 +$10 +26%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 05 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by June Mar 28 $30 −$13 -44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $15 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $15 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $25 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 4h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 4h
US recession by end of 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 5h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $15 33d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $16 35d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $19 39d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $21 39d
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $9 43d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 43d
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 43d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $15 43d
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 45¢ $10 55d
Solana Up or Down - April 21, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $5 64d
Solana Up or Down - April 21, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $8 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 64d
US recession by end of 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 75d
US recession by end of 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $35 75d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 80d
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? BUY No 50¢ $15 80d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $15 83d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 62¢ $15 83d
US recession by end of 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $15 84d
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 65¢ $15 84d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 84d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $20 84d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $308.47 · official $308.51 (match) · 115 history records