Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:49:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
9D 0x9dfb…ad35 crypto 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$75 (-5%) realized +$2 · open −$85
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate51%47W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$267now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days−$2
14 days−$20
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 36% −$19
politics 36% −$91
sports 19% −$17
other 9% +$37
world 1% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +30.8% +18.3% 33% 33% -14.5%
≤30d 12 +6.0% -4.1% 25% 25% -19.8%
≤90d 93 +26.0% +14.0% 51% 47% -9.3%
all 93 +26.0% +14.0% 51% 47% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.0% 47% -9.3%
10% +3.1% 46% -17.9%
15% -6.9% 44% -25.9%
20% -16.0% 41% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +38% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$267
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$85
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses47 / 46
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)93 / 102
History coverage90d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 37¢ 28¢ $223 $167 −$56 (-25%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $18 $20 +$2 (+12%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $50 $19 −$31 (-62%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 51¢ 52¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Yes 12¢ 9¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-27%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-32%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$8 +262%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 +$14 +442%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$5 +172%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 09 $14 −$14 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 04 $8 −$6 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 04 $117 −$5 -5%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 11 $3 +$9 +289%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 11 $3 −$2 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Mar 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 29 $10 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Mar 29 $53 −$31 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Mar 29 $22 −$19 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Mar 29 $56 −$3 -6%
UFC Fight Night: Alexa Grasso vs. Maycee Barber (Women's Flyweight, Ma Mar 29 $42 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Mar 29 $55 −$16 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Mar 29 $43 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Mar 29 $5 +$5 +101%
76ers vs. Hornets Mar 29 $6 +$6 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Mar 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Mar 29 $22 +$11 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Mar 28 $1 +$10 +998%
Counter-Strike: SAW vs TEAM ASCEND (BO1) - Roman Imperium Cup Group B Mar 28 $16 $0 -2%
Pistons vs. Timberwolves Mar 28 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Mar 28 $24 −$24 -100%
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs paiN Academy (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Group Mar 28 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Mar 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs megoshort (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Mar 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: TNC vs Hashiras (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #19 Group St Mar 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-Zero Tenacity vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qu Mar 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-03-28? Mar 28 $15 +$13 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Mar 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Mar 28 $12 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Mar 28 $20 +$26 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Mar 28 $17 +$14 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Mar 28 $11 +$6 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Mar 28 $9 −$5 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Mar 28 $10 +$8 +80%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterd Mar 28 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 28 $1 +$7 +723%
Panthers vs. Islanders Mar 28 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Mar 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $5 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $10 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 1h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 44h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 26¢ $10 44h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 12¢ $9 44h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 3d
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 5d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $14 5d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 5d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 17¢ $86 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 10d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 40¢ $111 10d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 10d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 10d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 5¢ $52 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $267.00 · official $267.08 (match) · 271 history records