Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:06:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9D
0x9dfc…1bd2
politics · 29 markets active 0h ago
2.0score
+$3 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses11 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage319d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 0 History 29 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $31 +$1 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $3 +$1 +25%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Aug 10 $54 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Aug 10 $7 $0 -2%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Aug 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on August 15? Aug 10 $60 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 10 $7 $0 -0%
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? Aug 10 $65 +$1 +2%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 07 $7 $0 -1%
Pakistan strike on India by Friday? Aug 07 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Aug 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Aug 06 $7 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by between 0.95–0.99ºC in July 2025? Aug 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Jul 31 $2 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jul 31 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 30 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Jul 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 30 $7 $0 -1%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bertie Ahern win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 29 $11 $0 +0%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 29 $60 $0 +0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%? Jul 29 $64 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Jul 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 25–August 1? Jul 29 $64 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 29% $0
economics 23% +$1
politics 20% $0
world 11% +$2
crypto 11% $0
sports 2% $0
finance 1% $0
weather 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $32 2m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $31 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $3 7h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $3 8h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $31 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $30 2d
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? SELL No 95¢ $54 306d
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 SELL No 91¢ $6 306d
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 SELL No 100¢ $7 306d
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? BUY No 95¢ $54 306d
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on August 15? SELL No 100¢ $60 306d
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 BUY No 100¢ $7 306d
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $7 306d
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 BUY No 93¢ $7 306d
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on August 15? BUY No 100¢ $60 306d
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $7 306d
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $7 307d
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $7 308d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 96¢ $7 308d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 97¢ $7 309d
Pakistan strike on India by Friday? SELL No 98¢ $7 309d
Pakistan strike on India by Friday? BUY No 99¢ $7 309d
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? SELL No 99¢ $7 309d
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? BUY No 99¢ $7 310d
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? SELL No 94¢ $7 310d
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? BUY No 94¢ $7 310d
Will global temperature increase by between 0.95–0.99ºC in July 2025? SELL No 99¢ $7 310d
Will global temperature increase by between 0.95–0.99ºC in July 2025? BUY No 99¢ $7 310d
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? SELL No 99¢ $7 311d
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY No 98¢ $7 313d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +9.7% -0.7% 100% 33% -6.7%
≤30d 3 +9.7% -0.7% 100% 33% -6.7%
≤90d 3 +9.7% -0.7% 100% 33% -6.7%
all 29 +1.0% -8.6% 38% 3% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 3% -9.0%
10% -17.4% 3% -17.7%
15% -25.4% 0% -25.6%
20% -32.7% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 71 history records